Article(id=1324044739682644567, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324044701648695723, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509065, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1756828800000, receivedDateStr=2025-09-03, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793606465502, onlineDateStr=2026-11-02, pubDate=1779638400000, pubDateStr=2026-05-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793606465502, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-11-02, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793606465502, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793606465502, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1324044701648695723, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='10', pageStart='1729', pageEnd='1920', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1779638400000', pubDateStr='2026-05-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793606456434, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793670074552, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1324311535425815306, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324044701648695723, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1324311535425815307, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324044701648695723, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1766, endPage=1772, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1324044739921719896, articleId=1324044739682644567, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=The association between accelerated phenotypic age acceleration and osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To explore the association between accelerated phenotypic aging(PAA) and risk of osteoarthritis(OA), and to assess the modifying effect of genetic susceptibility, as well as the mediating effect of body mass index(BMI) on the PAA-OA association.

Methods

Using baseline survey, diagnostic, and genetic data from the UK Biobank(UKB), Cox proportional hazards regression models was employedto analyze the association between PAA and OA, and pathway analysis was employed to explore the mediating effect of BMI.

Results

With an average follow-up of 13.7 years, a total of 42 977 incident OA cases were recorded. PAA acceleration was significantly associated with an increased risk of OA(HR=2.13, 95%CI:2.11-2.15). BMI mediated 77.1%(95%CI:65.5%-92.1%) of the total effect. Further subgroup analyses revealed that the PAA-OA association was significant across all subgroups, including different sex, age, and BMI levels. No gene-PAA interaction was identified for OA risk.

Conclusion

PAA is an independent risk factor for OA, and BMI is an important mediating variable in the PAA-OA association. This study provides novel insights and public health implications for delaying aging and preventing OA.

, authors=Xiu-ze TIAN, Mao-yao XIA, Xiao-feng MA, Yan-qiu ZOU, Ting LIU, Hong-xia XIA, Meng-jie HU, Yan SU, Meng-yu FAN, Xia JIANG, Xiao-bing PU, Xiao-ling WEN, authorsList=Xiu-ze TIAN, Mao-yao XIA, Xiao-feng MA, Yan-qiu ZOU, Ting LIU, Hong-xia XIA, Meng-jie HU, Yan SU, Meng-yu FAN, Xia JIANG, Xiao-bing PU, Xiao-ling WEN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xiao-ling WEN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1324044746804572774, articleId=1324044739682644567, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=表型年龄衰老加速与骨关节炎关联的前瞻性队列研究, columnId=1228016567632462653, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=流行病与统计方法, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

探索表型年龄衰老加速(PAA)与骨关节炎(OA)发病风险的关联,评估遗传易感性对PAA与OA关联的效应修饰作用及体质指数(BMI)的中介作用。

方法

利用英国生物样本库(UK Biobank)中基线调查、疾病诊断及遗传数据,采用Cox比例风险回归模型分析PAA、遗传风险评分与OA的关联,通过中介路径分析探索BMI的中介效应。

结果

平均随访13.7年,共记录新发OA 42 977例。PAA加速与OA发病风险显著相关(HR=1.13,95%CI:1.11~1.15);BMI部分介导关联,中介比例达77.1%(95%CI:65.5%~92.1%)。进一步亚组分析发现,不同性别、年龄及BMI中,PAA与OA的关联均显著。联合分析、分层分析及交互效应分析未发现遗传易感性对PAA与OA关联的修饰。

结论

PAA是OA的独立危险因素,BMI是重要的中介变量。本研究对延缓衰老,防治OA具有一定公共卫生学启示。

, authors=田修泽, 夏茂瑶, 马小凤, 邹雁秋, 刘婷, 夏红霞, 胡梦婕, 苏颜, 樊萌语, 姜侠, 蒲小兵, 温晓玲, authorsList=田修泽, 夏茂瑶, 马小凤, 邹雁秋, 刘婷, 夏红霞, 胡梦婕, 苏颜, 樊萌语, 姜侠, 蒲小兵, 温晓玲, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=温晓玲, authorNote=

田修泽(2002—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:慢性病流行病学

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温晓玲,E-mail:
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Series C, Applied Statistics, 2025, 74(4): 969-993., articleTitle=Correcting for bias due to mismeasured exposure in mediation analysis with a survival outcome, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1324044761941816000, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, awardId=2025ZNSFSC1775, language=CN, fundingSource=四川省自然科学基金(2025ZNSFSC1775), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1324044762059256513, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, awardId=null, language=CN, fundingSource=教育部留学回国博士后科研启动基金, fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1324044762201862850, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, awardId=YJ202455, language=CN, fundingSource=四川大学高层次人才科研启动基金(YJ202455), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1324044762369635012, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, awardId=2024NSFTD0030, language=CN, fundingSource=四川省科学技术厅创新研究团队科学基金(2024NSFTD0030), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1324044747165282919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1324044747182060136, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, companyId=1324044747165282919, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1324044747194643049, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, companyId=1324044747165282919, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川 成都 610041)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1324044757885924016, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Stratified analysis of Genetic Risk Score, PAA, and the risk of incident OA, figureFileSmall=JL9/F04KYjynxJPFP8r0RQ==, figureFileBig=gEG3CjgRGkstKnq94kuxNg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324044758066279089, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=CN, label=图1, caption=遗传风险得分和PAA与OA发生风险的分层分析

注:模型校正了基线年龄、性别、汤森剥夺指数、教育程度、吸烟状况、饮酒状况、健康睡眠评分、健康膳食评分、身体活动水平、心血管疾病、类风湿性关节炎、骨质疏松症、遗传主成分、基因分型批次。

, figureFileSmall=JL9/F04KYjynxJPFP8r0RQ==, figureFileBig=gEG3CjgRGkstKnq94kuxNg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324044759970493106, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Joint analyses of Genetic Risk Score, PAA, and the risk of incident OA, figureFileSmall=Hm/w2ukFyB0MKpMziF1ewg==, figureFileBig=bStaepfJ9gdyYB54eGdFBw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324044760176014004, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=CN, label=图2, caption=遗传风险得分和PAA与OA发生风险的联合分析

注:模型校正了基线年龄、性别、汤森剥夺指数、教育程度、吸烟状况、饮酒状况、健康睡眠评分、健康膳食评分、身体活动水平、心血管疾病、类风湿性关节炎、骨质疏松症、遗传主成分、基因分型批次。

, figureFileSmall=Hm/w2ukFyB0MKpMziF1ewg==, figureFileBig=bStaepfJ9gdyYB54eGdFBw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324044760297648821, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=The mediating effect of BMI in the association between PAA and the risk of OA, figureFileSmall=vO1kcSqpJV8NDs9GbUC3nw==, figureFileBig=SQMrYAwVxmOesSypScMvvw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324044760461226679, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=CN, label=图3, caption=体质指数在PAA与OA发病风险关联中的中介作用

注:OA表示骨关节炎;HR表示风险比;CI表示置信区间;PAA表示Phenotypic Age acceleration,表型年龄加速;BMI表示Body mass index,体质指数。

, figureFileSmall=vO1kcSqpJV8NDs9GbUC3nw==, figureFileBig=SQMrYAwVxmOesSypScMvvw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324044760612221624, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

The baseline characteristics of study participants [,n(%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
组别总人群
n=278 664
PAA未加速
n=149 177
PAA加速
n=129 487
F/χ2P值a
年龄(岁)56.08±8.0856.05±7.9356.12±8.255.260.022
PA(岁)49.58±9.0646.65±8.1752.96±8.8438 223.64<0.001
性别7 018.12<0.001
女性148 196(53.18)90 340(60.56)57 856(44.68)
男性130 468(46.82)58 837(39.44)71 631(55.32)
TDI-1.58±2.92-1.78±2.79-1.33±3.041 648.72<0.001
教育程度1 014.03<0.001
高29 080(10.44)16 426(11.01)12 654(9.77)
中46 046(16.52)25 145(16.86)20 901(16.14)
低91 104(32.69)44 894(30.09)46 210(35.69)
缺失112 434(40.35)62 712(42.04)49 722(38.40)
吸烟状况5 730.05<0.001
仍吸烟27 751(9.96)9 015(6.04)18 736(14.47)
以前吸94 011(33.74)50 742(34.01)43 269(33.42)
从不吸155 984(55.98)88 974(59.64)67 010(51.75)
缺失918(0.33)446(0.30)472(0.36)
饮酒状况152.49<0.001
从不喝17 726(6.36)8 746(5.86)8 980(6.94)
偶尔/经常喝260 747(93.57)140 358(94.09)120 389(92.97)
缺失191(0.07)73(0.05)118(0.09)
体力活动a312.78<0.001
低强度体力活动38 607(13.85)19 419(13.02)19 188(14.82)
高强度体力活动180 877(64.91)98 944(66.33)81 933(63.28)
缺失59 180(21.24)30 814(20.66)28 366(21.91)
健康睡眠评分2.99±1.073.05±1.052.92±1.09927.7<0.001
健康膳食评分2.35±1.152.48±1.122.21±1.164 073.26<0.001
BMI分组(kg/m2)6 705.96<0.001
<2597 014(34.81)59 825(40.10)37 189(28.72)
25~29.9120 798(43.35)64 679(43.36)56 119(43.34)
≥3060 852(21.84)24 673(16.54)36 179(27.94)
基线是否患心血管疾病1 204.60<0.001
否265 414(95.25)144 029(96.55)121 385(93.74)
是13 250(4.75)5 148(3.45)8 102(6.26)
基线是否患骨质疏松84.57<0.001
否273 954(98.31)146 343(98.10)127 611(98.55)
是4 710(1.69)2 834(1.90)1 876(1.45)
基线是否患类风湿性关节炎332.75<0.001
否277 764(99.68)148 895(99.81)128 869(99.52)
是900(0.32)282(0.19)618(0.48)
随访发生骨关节炎42 977(15.42)21 851(14.65)21 126(16.32)147.63<0.001
随访人年(年)13.72±3.1013.82±3.0013.60±3.20332.75<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1324044760901628601, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

研究对象基线特征[, n(%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
组别总人群
n=278 664
PAA未加速
n=149 177
PAA加速
n=129 487
F/χ2P值a
年龄(岁)56.08±8.0856.05±7.9356.12±8.255.260.022
PA(岁)49.58±9.0646.65±8.1752.96±8.8438 223.64<0.001
性别7 018.12<0.001
女性148 196(53.18)90 340(60.56)57 856(44.68)
男性130 468(46.82)58 837(39.44)71 631(55.32)
TDI-1.58±2.92-1.78±2.79-1.33±3.041 648.72<0.001
教育程度1 014.03<0.001
高29 080(10.44)16 426(11.01)12 654(9.77)
中46 046(16.52)25 145(16.86)20 901(16.14)
低91 104(32.69)44 894(30.09)46 210(35.69)
缺失112 434(40.35)62 712(42.04)49 722(38.40)
吸烟状况5 730.05<0.001
仍吸烟27 751(9.96)9 015(6.04)18 736(14.47)
以前吸94 011(33.74)50 742(34.01)43 269(33.42)
从不吸155 984(55.98)88 974(59.64)67 010(51.75)
缺失918(0.33)446(0.30)472(0.36)
饮酒状况152.49<0.001
从不喝17 726(6.36)8 746(5.86)8 980(6.94)
偶尔/经常喝260 747(93.57)140 358(94.09)120 389(92.97)
缺失191(0.07)73(0.05)118(0.09)
体力活动a312.78<0.001
低强度体力活动38 607(13.85)19 419(13.02)19 188(14.82)
高强度体力活动180 877(64.91)98 944(66.33)81 933(63.28)
缺失59 180(21.24)30 814(20.66)28 366(21.91)
健康睡眠评分2.99±1.073.05±1.052.92±1.09927.7<0.001
健康膳食评分2.35±1.152.48±1.122.21±1.164 073.26<0.001
BMI分组(kg/m2)6 705.96<0.001
<2597 014(34.81)59 825(40.10)37 189(28.72)
25~29.9120 798(43.35)64 679(43.36)56 119(43.34)
≥3060 852(21.84)24 673(16.54)36 179(27.94)
基线是否患心血管疾病1 204.60<0.001
否265 414(95.25)144 029(96.55)121 385(93.74)
是13 250(4.75)5 148(3.45)8 102(6.26)
基线是否患骨质疏松84.57<0.001
否273 954(98.31)146 343(98.10)127 611(98.55)
是4 710(1.69)2 834(1.90)1 876(1.45)
基线是否患类风湿性关节炎332.75<0.001
否277 764(99.68)148 895(99.81)128 869(99.52)
是900(0.32)282(0.19)618(0.48)
随访发生骨关节炎42 977(15.42)21 851(14.65)21 126(16.32)147.63<0.001
随访人年(年)13.72±3.1013.82±3.0013.60±3.20332.75<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1324044761069400763, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

The association of PA and PAA with the risk of OA

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
生物衰老指标发生数/总人数模型1模型2
HR (95%CI)P值HR (95%CI)P值
PA(连续变量)42 977/278 6641.02(1.02~1.03)<0.0011.02(1.02~1.03)<0.001
PAA(连续变量)42 977/278 6641.02(1.01~1.02)<0.0011.02(1.01~1.02)<0.001
PAA四分位数
Q110 133/69 7551.00Ref.1.00Ref.
Q210 312/69 8511.06(1.04~1.09)<0.0011.06(1.03~1.08)<0.001
Q310 620/69 7771.12(1.09~1.15)<0.0011.10(1.07~1.13)<0.001
Q411 912/69 2811.28(1.25~1.32)<0.0011.22(1.18~1.25)<0.001
PAA二分类变量
未加速21 851/149 1771.00Ref.1.00Ref.
加速21 126/129 4871.17(1.15~1.19)<0.0011.13(1.11~1.15)<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1324044761212007100, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

PA和PAA与OA发生风险的关联

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
生物衰老指标发生数/总人数模型1模型2
HR (95%CI)P值HR (95%CI)P值
PA(连续变量)42 977/278 6641.02(1.02~1.03)<0.0011.02(1.02~1.03)<0.001
PAA(连续变量)42 977/278 6641.02(1.01~1.02)<0.0011.02(1.01~1.02)<0.001
PAA四分位数
Q110 133/69 7551.00Ref.1.00Ref.
Q210 312/69 8511.06(1.04~1.09)<0.0011.06(1.03~1.08)<0.001
Q310 620/69 7771.12(1.09~1.15)<0.0011.10(1.07~1.13)<0.001
Q411 912/69 2811.28(1.25~1.32)<0.0011.22(1.18~1.25)<0.001
PAA二分类变量
未加速21 851/149 1771.00Ref.1.00Ref.
加速21 126/129 4871.17(1.15~1.19)<0.0011.13(1.11~1.15)<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1324044761358807741, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Subgroup analysis of the association between PAA and the risk of OA

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
亚组发生数/总人数HR (95%CI)P值交互P值
性别
男性18 559/130 4681.11(1.08~1.15)0.0010.001
女性24 418/148 1961.13(1.10~1.16)0.001
年龄(岁)
<6018 661/164 7801.12(1.09~1.16)0.0010.088
≥6024 316/113 8841.13(1.10~1.16)0.001
BMI(kg/m2)
<2510 780/97 0141.04(1.00~1.08)0.0620.992
25~29.918 748/120 7981.04(1.01~1.07)0.006
≥3013 449/60 8521.04(1.01~1.08)0.015
教育程度
低3 503/29 0801.11(1.04~1.19)0.0020.443
中7 245/46 0461.15(1.10~1.21)0.001
高17 830/91 1041.12(1.09~1.16)0.001
吸烟状况
仍吸烟4 189/27 7511.14(1.06~1.22)0.0010.067
以前吸16 573/94 0111.10(1.07~1.14)0.001
从不吸22 036/155 9841.14(1.11~1.17)0.001
饮酒状况
从不喝3 277/17 7261.11(1.03~1.19)0.0040.381
偶尔/经常喝39 673/260 7471.12(1.10~1.15)0.001
体力活动
低强度体力活动5 470/38 6071.20(1.14~1.27)0.0010.002
高强度体力活动26 619/180 8771.09(1.06~1.12)0.001
基线是否患心血管疾病
是3 033/13 2501.09(1.01~1.17)0.0010.089
否39 944/265 4141.13(1.10~1.15)0.001
基线是否患骨质疏松
是1 205/4 7101.10(0.98~1.24)0.0110.815
否41 772/273 9541.12(1.10~1.15)0.001
基线是否患类风湿关节炎
是349/9001.16(0.92~1.47)0.220.774
否42 628/277 7641.12(1.10~1.14)0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1324044761635631807, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044739682644567, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

PAA与OA发生风险关联的亚组分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
亚组发生数/总人数HR (95%CI)P值交互P值
性别
男性18 559/130 4681.11(1.08~1.15)0.0010.001
女性24 418/148 1961.13(1.10~1.16)0.001
年龄(岁)
<6018 661/164 7801.12(1.09~1.16)0.0010.088
≥6024 316/113 8841.13(1.10~1.16)0.001
BMI(kg/m2)
<2510 780/97 0141.04(1.00~1.08)0.0620.992
25~29.918 748/120 7981.04(1.01~1.07)0.006
≥3013 449/60 8521.04(1.01~1.08)0.015
教育程度
低3 503/29 0801.11(1.04~1.19)0.0020.443
中7 245/46 0461.15(1.10~1.21)0.001
高17 830/91 1041.12(1.09~1.16)0.001
吸烟状况
仍吸烟4 189/27 7511.14(1.06~1.22)0.0010.067
以前吸16 573/94 0111.10(1.07~1.14)0.001
从不吸22 036/155 9841.14(1.11~1.17)0.001
饮酒状况
从不喝3 277/17 7261.11(1.03~1.19)0.0040.381
偶尔/经常喝39 673/260 7471.12(1.10~1.15)0.001
体力活动
低强度体力活动5 470/38 6071.20(1.14~1.27)0.0010.002
高强度体力活动26 619/180 8771.09(1.06~1.12)0.001
基线是否患心血管疾病
是3 033/13 2501.09(1.01~1.17)0.0010.089
否39 944/265 4141.13(1.10~1.15)0.001
基线是否患骨质疏松
是1 205/4 7101.10(0.98~1.24)0.0110.815
否41 772/273 9541.12(1.10~1.15)0.001
基线是否患类风湿关节炎
是349/9001.16(0.92~1.47)0.220.774
否42 628/277 7641.12(1.10~1.14)0.001
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表型年龄衰老加速与骨关节炎关联的前瞻性队列研究
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田修泽 , 夏茂瑶 , 马小凤 , 邹雁秋 , 刘婷 , 夏红霞 , 胡梦婕 , 苏颜 , 樊萌语 , 姜侠 , 蒲小兵 , 温晓玲
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2026,53(10): 1766-1772
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现代预防医学 |流行病与统计方法 2026 , 53 (10) : 1766 -1772
表型年龄衰老加速与骨关节炎关联的前瞻性队列研究
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田修泽(2002—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:慢性病流行病学

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田修泽, 夏茂瑶, 马小凤, 邹雁秋, 刘婷, 夏红霞, 胡梦婕, 苏颜, 樊萌语, 姜侠, 蒲小兵, 温晓玲
作者信息
  • 四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川 成都 610041
通讯作者:
温晓玲,E-mail:
作者简介:

田修泽(2002—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:慢性病流行病学

The association between accelerated phenotypic age acceleration and osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study
Xiu-ze TIAN, Mao-yao XIA, Xiao-feng MA, Yan-qiu ZOU, Ting LIU, Hong-xia XIA, Meng-jie HU, Yan SU, Meng-yu FAN, Xia JIANG, Xiao-bing PU, Xiao-ling WEN
Affiliations
  • West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
出版时间: 2026-05-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509065
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目的

探索表型年龄衰老加速(PAA)与骨关节炎(OA)发病风险的关联,评估遗传易感性对PAA与OA关联的效应修饰作用及体质指数(BMI)的中介作用。

方法

利用英国生物样本库(UK Biobank)中基线调查、疾病诊断及遗传数据,采用Cox比例风险回归模型分析PAA、遗传风险评分与OA的关联,通过中介路径分析探索BMI的中介效应。

结果

平均随访13.7年,共记录新发OA 42 977例。PAA加速与OA发病风险显著相关(HR=1.13,95%CI:1.11~1.15);BMI部分介导关联,中介比例达77.1%(95%CI:65.5%~92.1%)。进一步亚组分析发现,不同性别、年龄及BMI中,PAA与OA的关联均显著。联合分析、分层分析及交互效应分析未发现遗传易感性对PAA与OA关联的修饰。

结论

PAA是OA的独立危险因素,BMI是重要的中介变量。本研究对延缓衰老,防治OA具有一定公共卫生学启示。

生物衰老  /  表型年龄  /  遗传易感性  /  体质指数  /  骨关节炎
Objective

To explore the association between accelerated phenotypic aging(PAA) and risk of osteoarthritis(OA), and to assess the modifying effect of genetic susceptibility, as well as the mediating effect of body mass index(BMI) on the PAA-OA association.

Methods

Using baseline survey, diagnostic, and genetic data from the UK Biobank(UKB), Cox proportional hazards regression models was employedto analyze the association between PAA and OA, and pathway analysis was employed to explore the mediating effect of BMI.

Results

With an average follow-up of 13.7 years, a total of 42 977 incident OA cases were recorded. PAA acceleration was significantly associated with an increased risk of OA(HR=2.13, 95%CI:2.11-2.15). BMI mediated 77.1%(95%CI:65.5%-92.1%) of the total effect. Further subgroup analyses revealed that the PAA-OA association was significant across all subgroups, including different sex, age, and BMI levels. No gene-PAA interaction was identified for OA risk.

Conclusion

PAA is an independent risk factor for OA, and BMI is an important mediating variable in the PAA-OA association. This study provides novel insights and public health implications for delaying aging and preventing OA.

Biological aging  /  Phenotypic age acceleration  /  Genetic susceptibility  /  Body mass index  /  Osteoarthritis
田修泽, 夏茂瑶, 马小凤, 邹雁秋, 刘婷, 夏红霞, 胡梦婕, 苏颜, 樊萌语, 姜侠, 蒲小兵, 温晓玲. 表型年龄衰老加速与骨关节炎关联的前瞻性队列研究. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (10) : 1766 -1772 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509065
Xiu-ze TIAN, Mao-yao XIA, Xiao-feng MA, Yan-qiu ZOU, Ting LIU, Hong-xia XIA, Meng-jie HU, Yan SU, Meng-yu FAN, Xia JIANG, Xiao-bing PU, Xiao-ling WEN. The association between accelerated phenotypic age acceleration and osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (10) : 1766 -1772 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509065
骨关节炎(Osteoarthritis,OA)是老年人致残的主要原因之一,随着人口老龄化加剧,其疾病负担持续上升。由于目前尚无逆转OA病程的有效药物[1],识别可干预危险因素对其一级预防具有重要意义。
实足年龄是OA的重要危险因素,但难以解释同龄个体间发病风险差异[2]。相较而言,生物衰老可更全面反映机体功能退变程度,是多种衰老相关疾病的重要风险因素[3]。尽管端粒长度和表观遗传时钟等指标在揭示衰老分子机制方面具有优势,但其检测成本与技术要求限制了临床应用。表型年龄(phenotypic age,PA)基于常规临床指标构建,具有较好的临床应用潜力;表型年龄衰老加速(phenotypic age acceleration,PAA)反映个体相对于实足年龄的衰老速度,已被证实与多种慢性病相关[4-8]。既往关于PAA与OA关系的研究结论并不一致,且以前瞻性证据为缺。
此外,PAA驱动OA的具体生物学通路尚待阐明。鉴于肥胖是OA的关键风险因素,且其与衰老过程关系复杂[9-12],阐明BMI(Body Mass Index,身体质量指数)在PAA-OA关联中的潜在中介作用至关重要。同时,考虑到遗传背景的重要性,本研究将利用多基因风险评分(Polygenic Risk Score,PRS)评估个体的遗传易感性,探究其对PAA与OA关联中的修饰效应,以期为精准识别高危人群提供依据[13-14]。综上所述,本研究旨在利用英国生物样本库(UK Biobank,UKB)阐明PAA与新发OA的纵向关联,并检验遗传易感性的修饰效应以及BMI的中介作用。
本前瞻性队列研究数据来源于英国生物样本库(UK Biobank,UKB)。基线共纳入502 366名参与者,排除基线已患OA、PAA相关数据缺失、PA极端值及非白人参与者后,最终纳入278 664人进行主要分析;遗传相关分析进一步排除遗传数据缺失者后,最终纳入229 747人。鉴于本研究构建的OA多基因风险评分基于以欧洲人群为主的大规模全基因组关联研究结果,为减少不同祖源人群间遗传结构差异导致的群体分层偏倚,并提高遗传分析结果的可比性,本研究主要纳入白人参与者。UK Biobank已获得North West Multi-centre Research Ethics Committee伦理批准(REC reference: 16/NW/0274),本研究基于UK Biobank申请号99713开展。
PA基于“BioAge”R包[15],由包括白蛋白、肌酐、葡萄糖、C反应蛋白、淋巴细胞百分比、平均细胞容积、红细胞分布宽度、碱性磷酸酶、白细胞计数在内的9种临床检测指标计算而来。PAA定义为通过PA对CA进行普通最小二乘法线性回归分析计算所产生的残差(即PAA=PA-(β0+β1×CA),其中β0和β1分别为回归截距和斜率),以剔除实足年龄的线性效应[16]。PAA值越大,表示衰老越快。PAA>0表示个体的生物年龄高于预期。
本研究的多基因风险评分基于Boer等人(2021)发表的大规模OA全基因组关联研究Meta分析结果构建[17]。该研究纳入了826 690名个体,识别出100个全基因组显著(P<1.3×10-8)且相互独立的风险位点。鉴于这些位点在原始研究中已经通过严格的连锁不平衡修剪(LD Clumping,r2<0.10)即条件联合分析(GCTA-COJO)确证为独立信号,本研究直接纳入这100个Lead SNPs(Single Nucleotide Polymorphism,单核苷酸多态性),未进行额外的LD修剪[17]。采用加权求和法计算每位参与者的OA多基因风险评分,计算公式为:
其中PRSj为个体j的多基因风险评分,βi为第i个SNP的效应值(lnOR,来源于Boer等人的Meta分析),dosageij为个体j在第i个位点的效应等位基因剂量(0、1或2)[13]。PRS越高代表个体对OA的遗传易感性越强。
本研究结局为新发OA,根据国际疾病分类第十版修订(International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision,ICD-10)编码、ICD-9编码以及自报疾病记录识别。基线时已患OA者被排除。协变量包括人口学特征(年龄、性别、教育程度、汤森剥夺指数(Townsend deprivation Index,TDI))、生活方式(吸烟、饮酒状况、体力活动水平、健康睡眠评分及健康膳食评分)和基线共病(心血管疾病、骨质疏松、类风湿性关节炎、糖尿病、代谢综合征和痛风,根据ICD9/10编码以及自报疾病记录定义)。遗传分析中额外校正了前十个遗传主成分与基因分型批次。健康睡眠评分基于UKB中5项睡眠相关变量,参照既往文献定义自行计算[18]。健康膳食评分基于食物频率问卷相关条目,参照既往文献标准自行计算[19]。体力活动水平根据UKB收集的国际体力活动问卷相关信息,按预设阈值分类,每周中等强度≥150分钟或剧烈强度≥75分钟为高强度,否则为低强度。TDI为UKB提供的地区层面社会经济剥夺指标。
使用χ2检验和Kruskal-Wallis检验比较基线特征。采用Cox比例风险回归模型评估PAA与新发OA的关联,报告风险比(Hazard ratio,HR)及95%置信区间(Confidence interval,CI)。按照性别、年龄等特征进行亚组分析,并采取滞后分析策略,通过排除随访2年内发生OA的所有病例、在协变量未经填补的人群重复主分析和额外调整糖尿病、代谢综合、痛风以控制代谢炎症性疾病的潜在混杂偏倚等方式进行敏感性分析。使用“lavaan”R包的路径模型分析BMI在PAA-OA关联中的中介效应,PAA(暴露)与BMI(中介)均以连续型变量纳入模型。模型在暴露-中介模型和中介-结局模型中同步校正了包括人口学特征、生活方式及基线患病在内的所有协变量。通过评估加法交互与乘法交互来探究PRS的效应修饰作用。
所有分析均使用R 4.5.2软件完成,检验水准为α=0.05。
本研究最终纳入278 664名参与者。在平均13.72年随访期间,共记录42 977例新发OA。基线时参与者平均年龄56.08岁、其中53.18%是女性。按基线PAA状态分为PAA未加速组(n=149 177)与PAA加速组(n=129 487)。在总人群中,PAA呈近似正态分布,Pearson相关分析显示PAA与实足年龄的相关系数r<0.001(P=1.0),表明PAA已有效去除实足年龄的线性效应。研究对象的基线特征详见表1,总体而言,与PAA未加速组相比,PAA加速组在多项生活方式、BMI、TDI及部分基线共病指标上表现出较不利的分布特征。
多变量校正后,PAA与新发OA风险呈显著正向关联(表2)。当PAA作为连续变量(每增加1单位,HR=1.02,95%CI:1.01~1.02,P<0.001)、四分位变量(最高vs最低组,HR=1.22,95%CI:1.18~1.25,P<0.001)及二分类变量(PAA>0 vs PAA<0,HR=1.13,95%CI:1.11~1.15)时,该关联均具有统计学意义,且存在显著剂量反应关系(P for trend<0.001)。在排除随访早期病例(HR=1.12,95%CI:1.10~1.14)和协变量未经填补的人群(HR=1.12,95%CI:1.09~1.16)的敏感性分析中,结果依然稳健。当进一步校正糖尿病、代谢综合征及痛风病史后,PAA与OA的关联强度所有轻微减弱,但仍有统计学意义(HR=1.07,95%CI:1.05~1.09),提示PAA对OA的风险预测能力独立于既往临床诊断的代谢性疾病。
亚组分析显示,PAA与OA的风险关联在按性别、年龄及BMI等分层的人群中表现稳定(表3)。值得注意的是,PAA加速与体力活动水平存在显著交互作用(P for interaction=0.002),在低强度体力活动人群中效应更强(HR=1.20,95%CI:1.14~1.27),在高强度体力活动人群中效应减弱(HR=1.09,95%CI:1.06~1.12),提示高强度体力活动可能部分抵消PAA加速所致OA风险。
如图1所示,分层分析显示,在低、中和高遗传风险人群中,PAA加速均显著增加OA风险。如图2所示,联合分析进一步揭示了两种因素对OA风险的累积效应。当高遗传风险与PAA加速同时存在时,个体发生OA的风险最高(HR=1.39,95%CI:1.33~1.46)。当进一步评估PAA和遗传风险的交互作用,未发现显著结果:似然比检验显示,PAA加速与遗传风险之间无乘法交互作用(P for interaction=0.87);RERI为0.03(95%CI:-0.02~0.09),AP为0.02(95%CI:-0.02~0.07),S为1.12(95%CI:0.92~1.35),提示PAA加速与遗传风险之间无加性交互作用。以上结果表明,PAA加速、遗传易感性均是OA独立危险因素,两者共同存在时,罹患OA风险最大。
在中介分析前,对PAA与BMI进行共线性检验。Pearson相关分析显示两者呈弱相关(r=0.21,P<0.001)。在同时纳入PAA与BMI的Cox回归模型中,两者的方差膨胀因子(Variance Inflation Factor,VIF)分别为1.10和1.06,远低于共线性阈值(VIF<5),表明模型估计不受严重多重共线性的影响。中介分析表明,BMI在PAA与OA的关联中起到部分中介作用,其介导的效应占总效应的77.1%(95%CI:65.5%~92.1%)。
本研究基于UK Biobank大型前瞻性队列发现,表型年龄衰老加速(PAA)与新发骨关节炎(OA)风险升高显著相关。进一步分析显示,BMI在该关联中起重要中介作用,而遗传易感性未见明显修饰效应。上述结果提示,生物衰老可能通过肥胖相关通路参与OA发生发展,并为OA的早期识别和干预提供了新的流行病学证据。
本研究发现,PAA加速与OA发病风险增加13%相关。在排除随访前2年内发生的病例后,该关联方向和强度未见明显变化;进一步调整糖尿病、代谢综合征等疾病后,结果仍具有统计学意义,提示PAA与OA的关联具有一定稳健性。这一发现与细胞衰老、慢性炎症等衰老相关机制参与OA发生发展的基础研究结果一致[20-23]。既往人群研究中,仅有一项横断面研究报告PAA较高者OA患病风险增加[24],但其难以明确时序关系。本研究基于大规模前瞻性设计,为PAA与新发OA风险之间的关联提供了进一步证据。
本研究的另一重要发现是,BMI介导了PAA与OA关联中的较大比例,提示肥胖可能是连接生物衰老与OA的重要环节。已有研究表明,生物衰老相关的炎症反应、代谢异常及氧化应激可能促进脂肪堆积,而肥胖又可通过增加关节负荷、促进炎症反应和代谢紊乱参与OA发生发展[25-26];需要注意的是,较高的中介比例也可能与PAA和BMI在代谢异常通路上的重叠,以及PAA作为估算指标存在测量误差有关,因此仍需谨慎解释[27]。尽管如此,该结果仍提示,在衰老相关OA预防中,体重管理可能是更具可行性的干预方向。
本研究未发现PAA与遗传风险评分对OA发生存在显著交互作用,提示二者可能分别反映不同层面的风险信息。既往研究显示,OA遗传风险主要与关节结构和组织稳态相关,而PAA更多反映全身性的代谢和炎症累积[17]。因此,围绕生物衰老相关风险因素的干预,可能并不局限于高遗传易感人群。
本研究的优势在于采用大规模前瞻性队列设计,使用成熟的生物衰老指标,并同时评估了BMI的中介作用和遗传易感性的修饰效应。局限性方面:第一,PAA和BMI均基于基线单次测量,未能反映其动态变化;第二,OA诊断依赖自报和医疗记录,可能存在错分偏倚;第三,仍可能存在残余混杂;第四,研究对象以欧洲白人为主,结果外推需谨慎;第五,用于构建PRS的权重来源于包含UK Biobank的大型GWAS,可能存在一定过拟合风险;第六,中介分析中PAA的测量误差可能导致BMI中介比例被高估,因此对77.1%的中介比例应审慎解读[27]。
综上所述,PAA是OA的独立危险因素,BMI在其与OA的关联中起重要中介作用,而遗传易感性未见明显修饰。结果提示,体重管理可能是降低生物衰老相关OA风险的潜在切入点。
  • 四川省自然科学基金(2025ZNSFSC1775)
  • 教育部留学回国博士后科研启动基金
  • 四川大学高层次人才科研启动基金(YJ202455)
  • 四川省科学技术厅创新研究团队科学基金(2024NSFTD0030)
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2026年第53卷第10期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509065
  • 接收时间:2025-09-03
  • 首发时间:2026-11-02
  • 出版时间:2026-05-25
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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-03
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四川省自然科学基金(2025ZNSFSC1775)
教育部留学回国博士后科研启动基金
四川大学高层次人才科研启动基金(YJ202455)
四川省科学技术厅创新研究团队科学基金(2024NSFTD0030)
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    四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川 成都 610041

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Percentage of
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属
Genus
种数
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species
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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