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Article(id=1241329574483653084, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241329570129956900, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409476, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1727280000000, receivedDateStr=2024-09-26, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773885633345, onlineDateStr=2026-03-19, pubDate=1752076800000, pubDateStr=2025-07-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773885633345, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-19, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773885633345, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773885633345, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241329570129956900, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='13', pageStart='2305', pageEnd='2496', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773885632307, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773885763730, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241330121425080472, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241329570129956900, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241330121425080473, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241329570129956900, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2431, endPage=2436, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241329574852751843, articleId=1241329574483653084, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Impact of fertility opportunity cost on childbearing intention among career women: a case study of career development cost, columnId=1228016567846367388, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Health Policy and Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To examine the impact of fertility opportunity cost on childbearing intention among career women, with particular focus on career development cost.

Methods

Using data from the Chinese Residents’ Psychology and Behavior Survey, we analyzed 2 183 career women through binary logistic regression to assess how fertility opportunity costs (represented by career development costs) influence childbearing intentions.

Results

Among participants, 348 (15.9%) reported higher career development costs, while 627 (28.7%) expressed childbearing intention. Regression analysis showed positive associations between childbearing intention and: Han ethnicity (OR=1.863, 95%CI: 1.086-3.196), being married (OR=2.528,95%CI: 1.842-3.471), having ≥2 children (OR=1.687, 95%CI: 1.175-2.423), and higher career development costs (OR=1.336,95%CI: 1.038-1.721). Negative associations were found for age ≥36 years (OR=0.465, 95%CI: 0.273-0.795) and government/institutional employment (OR=0.770, 95%CI: 0.597-0.994).

Conclusion

Fertility opportunity costs, particularly career development costs, significantly influence career women’s childbearing intentions. These findings highlight the need for workplace policies that better support work-life balance and reduce opportunity costs associated with childbearing.

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目的

了解生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响。

方法

选取中国居民心理与行为调查研究中2 183名职业女性作为研究对象，采用二分类logistic回归，以职业发展成本为例分析生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响。

结果

职业发展成本较高的职业女性有348人，占比15.9%；有生育意愿的职业女性有627人，占比28.7%。回归分析结果显示，汉族(OR=1.863，95%CI:1.086～3.196)、有配偶(OR=2.528，95%CI:1.842～3.471)、已有子女数量为2个及以上(OR=1.687，95%CI:1.175～2.423)、职业发展成本较高(OR=1.336，95%CI:1.038～1.721)的职业女性更倾向于有生育的意愿。36岁及以上(OR=0.465，95%CI:0.273～0.795)、职业为机关及事业单位人员(OR=0.770，95%CI:0.597～0.994)的职业女性更倾向于没有生育的意愿。

结论

职业女性生育意愿影响因素存在差异性。生育机会成本对职业女性的生育意愿有显著正向作用。建议各方发挥社会支持的作用，营造良好的职业环境，促进社会生育包容性。

, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
于贞杰，E-mail:;
于颖荣，E-mail:；
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=sWpTxTe5w+e+Vf8R+tpfTg==, magXml=/Vti/KDqdR+udlEJ6LuN1A==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=Ux/8TC5VL3WTw5JRopV3cg==, pdfFileSize=627170, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=1CUsA5aeel+VaDy1wjk8RQ==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

于贞杰和于颖荣为共同通信作者

陈星（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：医药卫生政策与卫生经济学评价

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陈星（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：医药卫生政策与卫生经济学评价

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陈星（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：医药卫生政策与卫生经济学评价

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Population Journal, 2023, 45(6):36-49.(In Chinese), articleTitle=The impact of female gender equality concept on their fertility intention and fertility behavior, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241329764624036182, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=49, issue=11, pageStart=1368, pageEnd=1372, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[17], rfOrder=31, authorNames=高影, 高洁, 许莉莉, journalName=华南预防医学, refType=null, unstructuredReference=高影，高洁，许莉莉，等.西安地区已婚二孩育龄女性三孩生育意愿及其影响因素分析[J] .华南预防医学，2023，49（11）：1368-1372., articleTitle=西安地区已婚二孩育龄女性三孩生育意愿及其影响因素分析, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241329764754059611, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=49, issue=11, pageStart=1368, pageEnd=1372, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[17], rfOrder=32, authorNames=Gao Y, Gao J, Xu LL, journalName=South China Journal of Preventive Medicine, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Gao Y, Gao J, Xu LL, et al. 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Research on the impact of residents' participation in pension insurance on fertility intention[J] . Price: Theory & Practice, 2023, (8): 164-167, 210.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Research on the impact of residents' participation in pension insurance on fertility intention, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241329765064438119, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=41, issue=2, pageStart=203, pageEnd=207, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=35, authorNames=尚维廷, 周建芳, journalName=中国卫生事业管理, refType=null, unstructuredReference=尚维廷， 周建芳.“夹心一代”老人的双向代际支持及其与抑郁的相关性研究[J] .中国卫生事业管理，2024，41（2）：203-207., articleTitle=“夹心一代”老人的双向代际支持及其与抑郁的相关性研究, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241329765177684331, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=41, issue=2, pageStart=203, pageEnd=207, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=36, authorNames=Shang WT, Zhou JF, journalName=Chinese Health Service Management, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Shang WT, Zhou JF. Study on the Bi-Directional intergenerational support and its correlation with depression in the elderly People of "Sandwich Generation"[J] . Chinese Health Service Management, 2024, 41(2): 203-207.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Study on the Bi-Directional intergenerational support and its correlation with depression in the elderly People of "Sandwich Generation", refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241329758529712232, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, awardId=72374156, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金(72374156), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241329758668124270, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, awardId=ZR2019MG028, language=CN, fundingSource=山东省自然科学基金(ZR2019MG028), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241329758802342008, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, awardId=GWY202363, language=CN, fundingSource=山东省2023年全省公共卫生体系建设研究课题(GWY202363), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241329758970114178, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, awardId=2023YJSCX032, language=CN, fundingSource=2023年度研究生科研创新基金项目(2023YJSCX032), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241329754037613272, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241329754046001883, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, companyId=1241329754037613272, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of Management, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong 261053, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241329754054390491, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, companyId=1241329754037613272, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.山东第二医科大学管理学院，山东 潍坊 261053)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241329754159248100, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241329754167636710, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, companyId=1241329754159248100, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.山东第二医科大学护理学院，山东 潍坊 261053)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241329757950898245, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

One-way analysis of child birth desire of working women

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素变量人数（%）生育意愿情况χ2 值P值
有(%)没有(%)
年龄（岁）19～25147(6.7)37(25.2)110(74.8)9.2840.098
26～30497(2.8)156(31.4)341(68.6)
31～35357(16.4)117(32.8)240(67.2)
36～40318(14.6)89(28.0)229(72.0)
41～45501(23.0)140(27.9)361(72.1)
46～50363(16.6)88(24.2)275(75.8)
民族汉族2 089(95.7)609(29.2)1 480(70.8)4.3970.036
少数民族94(4.3)18(19.1)76(80.9)
长期居住地农村351(16.1)95(27.1)256(72.9)0.5610.454
城镇1 832(83.9)532(29.0)1 300(71.0)
最高文化程度小学及以下59(2.7)12(20.3)47(79.7)9.6530.022
初中178(8.2)50(28.1)128(71.9)
高中/中专310(14.2)70(22.6)240(77.4)
大专及以上1 636(74.9)495(30.3)1 141(69.7)
人均月收入（元）≤3 000427(19.6)101(23.7)326(76.3)8.0780.089
3 001～4 500490(22.4)137(28.0)353(72.0)
4 501～6 000467(21.4)142(30.4)325(69.6)
6 001～9 000422(19.3)132(31.3)290(68.7)
≥9 001377(17.3)115(30.5)262(69.5)
有无配偶没有配偶511(23.4)94(18.4)417(81.6)34.753<0.001
有配偶1 672(76.6)533(31.9)1 139(68.1)
已有子女数量（个）0696(31.9)182(26.1)514(73.9)9.4970.009
1981(44.9)273(27.8)708(72.2)
≥2506(23.2)172(34.0)334(66.0)
职业机关及事业单位人员870(39.9)239(27.5)631(72.5)4.9980.288
专业技术人员338(15.5)112(33.1)226(66.9)
生产与运输有关人员107(4.9)26(24.3)81(75.7)
商业服务业人员292(13.4)86(29.5)206(70.5)
其他576(26.4)164(28.5)412(71.5)
是否参加医疗保险是1 976(90.5)579(29.3)1 397(70.7)3.4200.064
否207(9.5)48(23.2)159(76.8)
自评健康非常不健康18(0.8)2(11.1)16(88.9)11.1750.025
比较不健康40(1.8)13(32.5)27(67.5)
一般129(5.9)33(25.6)96(74.4)
比较健康536(24.6)131(24.4)405(75.6)
非常健康1 460(66.9)448(30.7)1 012(69.3)
职业发展成本较高348(15.9)120(34.5)228(65.5)6.7110.010
较低1 835(84.1)507(27.6)1 328(72.4)
), ArticleFig(id=1241329758047367249, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

职业女性生育意愿单因素分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素变量人数（%）生育意愿情况χ2 值P值
有(%)没有(%)
年龄（岁）19～25147(6.7)37(25.2)110(74.8)9.2840.098
26～30497(2.8)156(31.4)341(68.6)
31～35357(16.4)117(32.8)240(67.2)
36～40318(14.6)89(28.0)229(72.0)
41～45501(23.0)140(27.9)361(72.1)
46～50363(16.6)88(24.2)275(75.8)
民族汉族2 089(95.7)609(29.2)1 480(70.8)4.3970.036
少数民族94(4.3)18(19.1)76(80.9)
长期居住地农村351(16.1)95(27.1)256(72.9)0.5610.454
城镇1 832(83.9)532(29.0)1 300(71.0)
最高文化程度小学及以下59(2.7)12(20.3)47(79.7)9.6530.022
初中178(8.2)50(28.1)128(71.9)
高中/中专310(14.2)70(22.6)240(77.4)
大专及以上1 636(74.9)495(30.3)1 141(69.7)
人均月收入（元）≤3 000427(19.6)101(23.7)326(76.3)8.0780.089
3 001～4 500490(22.4)137(28.0)353(72.0)
4 501～6 000467(21.4)142(30.4)325(69.6)
6 001～9 000422(19.3)132(31.3)290(68.7)
≥9 001377(17.3)115(30.5)262(69.5)
有无配偶没有配偶511(23.4)94(18.4)417(81.6)34.753<0.001
有配偶1 672(76.6)533(31.9)1 139(68.1)
已有子女数量（个）0696(31.9)182(26.1)514(73.9)9.4970.009
1981(44.9)273(27.8)708(72.2)
≥2506(23.2)172(34.0)334(66.0)
职业机关及事业单位人员870(39.9)239(27.5)631(72.5)4.9980.288
专业技术人员338(15.5)112(33.1)226(66.9)
生产与运输有关人员107(4.9)26(24.3)81(75.7)
商业服务业人员292(13.4)86(29.5)206(70.5)
其他576(26.4)164(28.5)412(71.5)
是否参加医疗保险是1 976(90.5)579(29.3)1 397(70.7)3.4200.064
否207(9.5)48(23.2)159(76.8)
自评健康非常不健康18(0.8)2(11.1)16(88.9)11.1750.025
比较不健康40(1.8)13(32.5)27(67.5)
一般129(5.9)33(25.6)96(74.4)
比较健康536(24.6)131(24.4)405(75.6)
非常健康1 460(66.9)448(30.7)1 012(69.3)
职业发展成本较高348(15.9)120(34.5)228(65.5)6.7110.010
较低1 835(84.1)507(27.6)1 328(72.4)
), ArticleFig(id=1241329758169002071, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Binary logistic regression analysis of child birth desire of working women

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量分类β Wald值P值OR值（95%CI）
年龄（岁）19～25
26～30-0.1280.2290.3120.5760.880（0.561～1.379）
31～35-0.3600.2532.0260.1550.698（0.425～1.145）
36～40-0.7650.2737.8340.0050.465（0.273～0.795）
41～45-0.7210.2677.2790.0070.486（0.288～0.821）
46～50-0.8780.27710.0170.0020.416（0.241～0.716）
民族少数民族
汉族0.6220.2755.1080.0241.863（1.086～3.196）
长期居住地农村
城镇0.0480.1420.1150.7351.049（0.794～1.387）
最高文化程度小学及以下
初中0.4290.3721.3330.2481.536（0.741～3.185）
高中/中专0.2100.3630.3340.5631.233（0.606～2.510）
大专及以上0.6360.3523.2710.0711.889（0.948～3.765）
人均月收入（元）≤3 000
3 001～4 5000.1840.1581.3470.2461.202（0.881～1.639）
4 501～6 0000.2460.1622.2990.1291.279（0.931～1.757）
6 001～9 0000.3040.1673.3170.0691.356（0.977～1.881）
≥9 0010.2240.1721.7020.1921.251（0.894～1.752）
有无配偶没有配偶
有配偶0.9280.16232.929<0.0012.528（1.842～3.471）
已有子女数量（个）0
10.0940.1620.3400.5601.099（0.800～1.508）
≥20.5230.1858.0200.0051.687（1.175～2.423）
职业其他
机关及事业单位人员-0.2610.1304.0340.0450.770（0.597～0.994）
专业技术人员0.0090.1610.0030.9521.009（0.736～1.384）
生产与运输有关人员-0.1540.2540.3670.5450.857（0.521～1.411）
商业服务业人员0.0080.1660.0020.9631.008（0.728～1.395）
是否参加医疗保险否
是0.2110.1821.3450.2461.234（0.865～1.4762）
自评健康非常不健康
比较不健康1.4270.8372.9060.0884.168（0.808～21.512）
一般1.0400.7881.7400.1872.828（0.603～13.259）
比较健康0.9350.7681.4850.2232.548（0.566～11.469）
非常健康1.3030.7632.9200.0873.681（0.826～16.410）
职业发展成本较低
较高0.2900.1295.0420.0251.336（1.038～1.721）
), ArticleFig(id=1241329758299025501, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329574483653084, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

职业女性生育意愿影响因素的二分类logistic回归分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量分类β Wald值P值OR值（95%CI）
年龄（岁）19～25
26～30-0.1280.2290.3120.5760.880（0.561～1.379）
31～35-0.3600.2532.0260.1550.698（0.425～1.145）
36～40-0.7650.2737.8340.0050.465（0.273～0.795）
41～45-0.7210.2677.2790.0070.486（0.288～0.821）
46～50-0.8780.27710.0170.0020.416（0.241～0.716）
民族少数民族
汉族0.6220.2755.1080.0241.863（1.086～3.196）
长期居住地农村
城镇0.0480.1420.1150.7351.049（0.794～1.387）
最高文化程度小学及以下
初中0.4290.3721.3330.2481.536（0.741～3.185）
高中/中专0.2100.3630.3340.5631.233（0.606～2.510）
大专及以上0.6360.3523.2710.0711.889（0.948～3.765）
人均月收入（元）≤3 000
3 001～4 5000.1840.1581.3470.2461.202（0.881～1.639）
4 501～6 0000.2460.1622.2990.1291.279（0.931～1.757）
6 001～9 0000.3040.1673.3170.0691.356（0.977～1.881）
≥9 0010.2240.1721.7020.1921.251（0.894～1.752）
有无配偶没有配偶
有配偶0.9280.16232.929<0.0012.528（1.842～3.471）
已有子女数量（个）0
10.0940.1620.3400.5601.099（0.800～1.508）
≥20.5230.1858.0200.0051.687（1.175～2.423）
职业其他
机关及事业单位人员-0.2610.1304.0340.0450.770（0.597～0.994）
专业技术人员0.0090.1610.0030.9521.009（0.736～1.384）
生产与运输有关人员-0.1540.2540.3670.5450.857（0.521～1.411）
商业服务业人员0.0080.1660.0020.9631.008（0.728～1.395）
是否参加医疗保险否
是0.2110.1821.3450.2461.234（0.865～1.4762）
自评健康非常不健康
比较不健康1.4270.8372.9060.0884.168（0.808～21.512）
一般1.0400.7881.7400.1872.828（0.603～13.259）
比较健康0.9350.7681.4850.2232.548（0.566～11.469）
非常健康1.3030.7632.9200.0873.681（0.826～16.410）
职业发展成本较低
较高0.2900.1295.0420.0251.336（1.038～1.721）
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生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响研究——以职业发展成本为例
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陈星 1 , 韩志鹏 1 , 王煜琳 1 , 王广通 1 , 于贞杰 1 , 井淇 1 , 胡善菊 1 , 于颖荣 2
现代预防医学 | 卫生政策与管理 2025,52(13): 2431-2436
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现代预防医学 | 卫生政策与管理 2025, 52(13): 2431-2436
生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响研究——以职业发展成本为例
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陈星1, 韩志鹏1, 王煜琳1, 王广通1, 于贞杰1 , 井淇1, 胡善菊1, 于颖荣2
作者信息
  • 1.山东第二医科大学管理学院，山东 潍坊 261053
  • 2.山东第二医科大学护理学院，山东 潍坊 261053

    • 陈星（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：医药卫生政策与卫生经济学评价

通讯作者:

于贞杰，E-mail:;
于颖荣，E-mail:；
Impact of fertility opportunity cost on childbearing intention among career women: a case study of career development cost
Xing CHEN1, Zhi-peng HAN1, Yu-lin WANG1, Guang-tong WANG1, Zhen-jie YU1 , Qi JING1, Shan-ju HU1, Ying-rong YU2
Affiliations
  • School of Management, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong 261053, China
出版时间: 2025-07-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409476
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摘要
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目的

了解生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响。

方法

选取中国居民心理与行为调查研究中2 183名职业女性作为研究对象，采用二分类logistic回归，以职业发展成本为例分析生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响。

结果

职业发展成本较高的职业女性有348人，占比15.9%；有生育意愿的职业女性有627人，占比28.7%。回归分析结果显示，汉族(OR=1.863，95%CI:1.086～3.196)、有配偶(OR=2.528，95%CI:1.842～3.471)、已有子女数量为2个及以上(OR=1.687，95%CI:1.175～2.423)、职业发展成本较高(OR=1.336，95%CI:1.038～1.721)的职业女性更倾向于有生育的意愿。36岁及以上(OR=0.465，95%CI:0.273～0.795)、职业为机关及事业单位人员(OR=0.770，95%CI:0.597～0.994)的职业女性更倾向于没有生育的意愿。

结论

职业女性生育意愿影响因素存在差异性。生育机会成本对职业女性的生育意愿有显著正向作用。建议各方发挥社会支持的作用，营造良好的职业环境，促进社会生育包容性。

生育机会成本  /  生育意愿  /  职业女性  /  职业发展成本
Objective

To examine the impact of fertility opportunity cost on childbearing intention among career women, with particular focus on career development cost.

Methods

Using data from the Chinese Residents’ Psychology and Behavior Survey, we analyzed 2 183 career women through binary logistic regression to assess how fertility opportunity costs (represented by career development costs) influence childbearing intentions.

Results

Among participants, 348 (15.9%) reported higher career development costs, while 627 (28.7%) expressed childbearing intention. Regression analysis showed positive associations between childbearing intention and: Han ethnicity (OR=1.863, 95%CI: 1.086-3.196), being married (OR=2.528,95%CI: 1.842-3.471), having ≥2 children (OR=1.687, 95%CI: 1.175-2.423), and higher career development costs (OR=1.336,95%CI: 1.038-1.721). Negative associations were found for age ≥36 years (OR=0.465, 95%CI: 0.273-0.795) and government/institutional employment (OR=0.770, 95%CI: 0.597-0.994).

Conclusion

Fertility opportunity costs, particularly career development costs, significantly influence career women’s childbearing intentions. These findings highlight the need for workplace policies that better support work-life balance and reduce opportunity costs associated with childbearing.

Fertility opportunity cost  /  Childbearing intention  /  Career women  /  Career development cost
陈星, 韩志鹏, 王煜琳, 王广通, 于贞杰, 井淇, 胡善菊, 于颖荣. 生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响研究——以职业发展成本为例. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (13) : 2431 -2436 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409476
Xing CHEN, Zhi-peng HAN, Yu-lin WANG, Guang-tong WANG, Zhen-jie YU, Qi JING, Shan-ju HU, Ying-rong YU. Impact of fertility opportunity cost on childbearing intention among career women: a case study of career development cost[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (13) : 2431 -2436 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409476
正文
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根据国家统计局数据显示，2023年我国人口出生率为6.39‰，创1950年以来的新低[1]。为应对这一挑战，我国积极采取措施调整生育政策，继2016年实施全面二孩政策后，2021年6月政府公布了《中共中央国务院关于优化生育政策促进人口长期均衡发展的决定》，实施一对夫妻可以生育三个子女的政策[2]。然而，受到文化、经济压力和相关育儿支持不足等因素的影响[3-4]，育龄女性的生育意愿并没有受到国家政策的显著影响，新生儿出生率依旧呈现下降状态，说明低生育率不仅是人口政策的产物，也反映了家庭和个人的自愿选择的结果[5]。相关研究表明，生育意愿是生育水平的超前变量，也是预测生育水平的重要参数[4]。
生育成本是影响生育意愿的一个重要因素，包括直接成本、间接成本和机会成本[6]。生育机会成本是夫妇由于生育和养育孩子所损失的收入、机会,以及所放弃的其他活动的效用，包括但不限于闲暇时间、职业发展成本。与男性相比，女性承担了更多的生育责任，且随着当下受教育水平的提高和生育观念的转变，女性对职业发展和个人价值实现的重视程度也不断提高，其生育机会成本也随之增加[7]。基于此，本研究以职业发展成本为例，分析生育机会成本对职业女性生育意愿的影响，旨在厘清生育需求、动机和行为之间的联系，为制定更加符合实际的生育政策、促进社会生育包容性提供科学依据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
本研究所采用数据来源为“中国居民心理与行为调查研究”，调查于2021年07月10日—2021年9月15日进行多阶段抽样，首先将中国23个省和5个自治区的省会、4个直辖市直接纳入，并用随机数表法在每个省、自治区的非省会地级行政区中各抽取2～6个城市，共120个城市。本研究关注在职女性的生育意愿，故样本纳入标准:（1）调查对象为女性，目前的职业状态为在职；（2）剔除样本空缺值以及不愿合作者等无效数据。结合调研实际，本研究将研究对象的年龄段界定在19～50岁，最终确定样本2 183人。本研究数据通过暨南大学伦理审查（JNUKY-2021-018），同时调查时获得被试者知情同意，由调查员输入问卷编号，进行答题。
1.2　研究指标
借鉴已有研究及数据的实际情况，本文选取了社会人口学特征、生育机会成本等作为自变量。社会人口学特征变量包括：年龄（0=19～25岁，1=26～30岁，2=31～35岁，3=36～40岁，4=41～45岁，5=46～50岁）、民族（0=少数民族，1=汉族)、长期居住地（0=农村，1=城镇）、最高文化程度（0=小学及以下，1=初中，2=高中或中专，3=大专及以上）、家庭人均月收入（0=≤3 000元，1=3 001～4 500元，2=4 501～6 000元，3=6 001～9 000元，4=≥9 001元）、有无配偶（0=没有配偶，1=有配偶）、已有子女数量（0=0个，1=1个，2=2个及以上）、职业（0=其他，1=机关及事业单位人员，2=专业技术人员，3=生产与运输有关人员，4=商业服务业人员）、是否参加医疗保险（0=否，1=是）、自评健康（0=非常不健康，1=比较不健康，2=一般，3=比较健康，4=非常健康）。
借鉴已有关于生育机会成本的研究[8]，关注的是女性选择生育而需要放弃其他机会的损失，即生育和照料孩子给母亲带来的机会成本。本研究以职业发展成本为例研究职业女性的生育机会成本，用问题“假如我未曾婚育，我在工作中的表现会更好”代表生育机会成本；当受访者认为生育会导致职业发展成本升高，即生育机会成本较高；当受访者不认为生育会导致职业发展成本升高，即生育机会成本较低；与其对应，认为职业发展成本较低为0，较高为1。
因变量是职业女性的生育意愿，用问题“生育的意愿”进行测量，变量赋值0为没有生育意愿，1为有生育意愿。
1.3　统计分析
运用SPSS 27.0进行数据整理和统计分析。调查对象的基本情况采用频数、百分比描述，使用χ2检验对职业女性生育意愿的影响因素进行单因素分析，选取P小于0.1的因素作为候选因素，使用方差膨胀因子法进行多重共线性诊断，然后采用二元logistic回归分析方法进行多因素分析。检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
收起
2.1　基本情况
2 183名调查对象中，年龄在41～45岁的501人(23.0%)；汉族2 089人(95.7%)；长期居住地为城镇的1 832人(83.9%)；最高文化程度为大专及以上的1 636人(74.9%);家庭人均月收入在3 001～4 500元的490人(22.4%)；有配偶的1 672人(76.6%)；已有子女数量为1个的981人(44.9%)；职业为机关及事业单位人员的870人(39.9%)；参加医疗保险的1 976人(90.5%)；自评健康为非常健康有1 460人(66.9%)；职业发展成本较低的1 835人(84.1%)；有生育意愿的627人(28.7%)。见表1。
2.2　职业女性生育意愿影响因素分析
单因素分析结果表明，在职业女性的生育意愿上，民族、最高文化程度、有无配偶、已有子女数量、自评健康、职业发展成本等因素的差异具有统计学意义（P<0.05）。见表1。
对单因素分析中P<0.1的9个因素进行共线性诊断，方差膨胀因子均<3，说明自变量不存在多重共线性。为了进一步分析职业女性生育意愿的影响因素，同时控制潜在的混杂偏倚并避免遗漏潜在的影响因素，本研究以职业女性的生育意愿作为因变量（0表示没有生育意愿，1表示有生育意愿），并将所有研究变量纳入二元logistic回归模型进行分析。由表2可见，影响职业女性生育意愿的因素有年龄、民族、有无配偶、已有子女数量、职业和职业发展成本（P<0.05）。即汉族、有配偶、已有子女数量为2个及以上、职业发展成本较高的职业女性更倾向于有生育的意愿。36岁及以上、职业为机关及事业单位员工的职业女性更倾向于没有生育的意愿。
3　讨论
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3.1　职业女性生育意愿影响因素存在差异性
年龄方面，36岁及以上的职业女性的生育意愿较低，这是因为随着年龄的增长，女性的生理机能逐渐下降，承担生育的生理风险会增加，身体健康状况会直接影响女性对生育的信心和意愿。与已有研究结果一致[9]，有配偶的职业女性生育意愿较高。与没有配偶的职业女性相比，有配偶的职业女性可以获得来自配偶的经济和情感支持与帮助，使其在生育方面面临的压力较小。再是受传统文化的影响，婚姻被视为生育的基础，有配偶的女性可能更倾向于遵循传统家庭观念，生育意愿较高。
汉族职业女性的生育意愿较少数民族高，少数民族地区一直享有较为宽松的生育政策，而近年来，中国政府采取了一系列促进生育的政策，例如放宽生育限制和提高育儿补助。这些政策更多为汉族职业女性提供了更多支持，减少了她们对生育的顾虑[10]。已有子女数量方面，育有2个及以上子女的职业女性有着更高的生育意愿。一方面，女性在育有多个孩子后，对育儿过程有了更多的了解和经验，这使她们在选择是否生育更多孩子时更有信心。另一方面，婴儿和幼儿的养育往往需要家庭的支持。已有子女的家庭通常形成了更好的支持系统，从而使得生育更多孩子变得相对可行[11]。
职业类型方面，机关及事业单位的职业女性的生育意愿不高，主要是因为她们年轻时所在单位执行了严格的独生子女政策，这在一定程度上抑制了她们的生育意愿。同时这些女性往往有不断完善的社会保障，在一定程度上代替了家庭保险的功能，使得她们不再需要依靠生育更多子女来作为未来生活的重要保障[12]。
3.2　生育机会成本对职业育龄女性生育意愿有显著正向影响
研究显示，职业发展成本较高的职业女性的生育意愿是职业发展成本较低的1.336倍。由此可见，生育机会成本会影响职业育龄女性的生育意愿，生育机会成本对女性生育意愿有显著正向影响。
本研究的结果与以往的研究结果不一致[13-14]。在中国传统家庭结构的影响下，年轻人往往将更多精力投入到工作中，以维持家庭的经济收入。如今，随着经济的发展，男女平等的观念在新时代得到了广泛倡导，女性的受教育水平程度和就业参与率不断提高[15]。与非在职女性相比，在职女性的社交范围更广，获取信息的渠道更多元，这使得在职女性对待生育有着更为客观的态度，更加注重自身职业的发展和自我价值的实现[16]。生育机会成本较高的职业女性通常具备较好的经济基础，而这一基础是她们生育意愿的物质前提。职业女性在选择生育时，需要考虑多项主要因素，包括教育费用、医疗成本和家庭生活开支[17]。同时，她们认为生育所带来的家庭幸福感以及子女未来的收益是值得的。因此，即使生育的机会成本较高，这些女性仍会选择生育，以更好地满足自身的精神和情感需求。
基于上述结果，建议发挥社会支持的作用，营造良好的职业环境，以促进社会对生育的包容性。应开展针对职业女性产后的职业培训和再就业支持[18]，帮助她们顺利重返职场，更好地实现自身价值。同时，适当增加女性在育儿期间工作的灵活性，探索建设贴近居民工作和生活需求的“嵌入式”托育设施、公共母婴室及儿童福利设施，以更好地满足已育女性的合理需求[9]。结合各地的实践经验，应增加普惠托育服务的供给，并细化出台托育机构的设置管理和登记备案等实施细则，进一步提升托育服务的标准化和规范化水平。此外，家庭内部应增强父母辈的育儿经验，提高其科学育儿水平，以发挥代际支持在提升女性生育意愿和促进老年人心理健康方面的积极作用，从而帮助女性更好地平衡工作与家庭，减轻育龄妇女的压力，提升她们的生育意愿[19]。
本研究的局限性在于所采用的数据为横断面数据，这使得研究结果无法准确反映生育意愿随时间发展的趋势。此外，由于生育意愿被简化为二分类变量（即有生育意愿与无生育意愿），这种处理方式可能无法全面展示个体在生育意愿方面的复杂性和多样性。
基金
收起
  • 国家自然科学基金(72374156)
  • 山东省自然科学基金(ZR2019MG028)
  • 山东省2023年全省公共卫生体系建设研究课题(GWY202363)
  • 2023年度研究生科研创新基金项目(2023YJSCX032)
文献
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2025年第52卷第13期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409476
  • 接收时间：2024-09-26
  • 首发时间：2026-03-19
  • 出版时间：2025-07-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-09-26
基金
国家自然科学基金(72374156)
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2019MG028)
山东省2023年全省公共卫生体系建设研究课题(GWY202363)
2023年度研究生科研创新基金项目(2023YJSCX032)
作者信息
    1.山东第二医科大学管理学院，山东 潍坊 261053
    2.山东第二医科大学护理学院，山东 潍坊 261053

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
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