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RESEARCH ON ULTRA SHORT TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING BASED ON VMD-LSTM-MULTICONV-SELFATTENTION
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Ren Haoqin, Lian Weichang, Qi Fengwu, Wang Limin, Zhao Shuhan, Liu Guangchen
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica | 2026, 47(6) : 394 - 402
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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica | 2026, 47(6): 394-402
RESEARCH ON ULTRA SHORT TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING BASED ON VMD-LSTM-MULTICONV-SELFATTENTION
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Ren Haoqin, Lian Weichang, Qi Fengwu, Wang Limin, Zhao Shuhan, Liu Guangchen
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doi: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0170
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To enhance the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting and support efficient power system dispatch, this study proposes an integrated multi-algorithm forecasting model. The variational mode decomposition (VMD) is firstly applied to suppress noise and reconstruct the original power sequence. In the modeling stage, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is adopted to capture temporal dependencies, followed by a multi-layer convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract local features. A Self Attention mechanism is further incorporated to dynamically focus on critical time steps, resulting in a collaborative multi-module forecasting framework. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, ablation studies, comparative experiments, and seasonal transfer tests were conducted using data from a wind farm in Shandong Province, China. The results show that, compared to baseline models, the proposed model reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) by 23.5% and the root mean square error (RMSE) by 20%, highlighting the advantages of each module in modeling complex temporal patterns. Additional validations in cross-regional (wind farms in Central and Western China) and cross-energy (photovoltaic plants) scenarios further demonstrate the model's strong generalization capability.
convolutional neural network  /  Self-Attention mechanism  /  wind power prediction  /  gradient boosting regression algorithm  /  variational mode decomposition  /  wind power
Ren Haoqin, Lian Weichang, Qi Fengwu, Wang Limin, Zhao Shuhan, Liu Guangchen. RESEARCH ON ULTRA SHORT TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING BASED ON VMD-LSTM-MULTICONV-SELFATTENTION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2026 , 47 (6) : 394 -402 . DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0170
Year 2026 volume 47 Issue 6
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doi: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0170
  • Receive Date:2025-01-24
  • Online Date:2026-07-17
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  • Received:2025-01-24
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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