Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
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2026, 47(6): 394-402
RESEARCH ON ULTRA SHORT TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING BASED ON VMD-LSTM-MULTICONV-SELFATTENTION
Full
Ren Haoqin, Lian Weichang, Qi Fengwu, Wang Limin, Zhao Shuhan, Liu Guangchen
Affiliations
doi: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0170
Outline
To enhance the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting and support efficient power system dispatch, this study proposes an integrated multi-algorithm forecasting model. The variational mode decomposition (VMD) is firstly applied to suppress noise and reconstruct the original power sequence. In the modeling stage, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is adopted to capture temporal dependencies, followed by a multi-layer convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract local features. A Self Attention mechanism is further incorporated to dynamically focus on critical time steps, resulting in a collaborative multi-module forecasting framework. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, ablation studies, comparative experiments, and seasonal transfer tests were conducted using data from a wind farm in Shandong Province, China. The results show that, compared to baseline models, the proposed model reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) by 23.5% and the root mean square error (RMSE) by 20%, highlighting the advantages of each module in modeling complex temporal patterns. Additional validations in cross-regional (wind farms in Central and Western China) and cross-energy (photovoltaic plants) scenarios further demonstrate the model's strong generalization capability.
convolutional neural network
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Self-Attention mechanism
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wind power prediction
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gradient boosting regression algorithm
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variational mode decomposition
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wind power
Ren Haoqin, Lian Weichang, Qi Fengwu, Wang Limin, Zhao Shuhan, Liu Guangchen.
RESEARCH ON ULTRA SHORT TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING BASED ON VMD-LSTM-MULTICONV-SELFATTENTION[J].
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,
2026
, 47
(6)
: 394
-402
.
DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0170
Year 2026 volume 47 Issue 6
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52
7
Cite this Article
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Article Info
doi: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0170
- Receive Date:2025-01-24
- Online Date:2026-07-17