Full
Outline
To predict the paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in the Bohai Sea, explore the correlation between foodborne multi metallic elements contaminants and the levels of PSP, and complete the dietary risk assessment of PSP.
This study analyzed samples with relatively high detection rates of 5 kinds of PSP, including saxitoxin (STX), gonyautoxins2/3/4 (GTX2, GTX3, GTX4) and neosaxitoxin (neoSTX), collected in the Bohai Sea from 2018 to 2024. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) was used to analyze the correlation, redundancy and complementarity with the multi metallic element content in bivalves. Based on this, feature selection for multi metallic elements was conducted, and 5 kinds of classical machine learning models to predict PSP levels was utilized. The experiments employed 10-fold cross-validation, paired t-tests and compared the prediction accuracy using a 95% confidence interval (CI). Finally, the point assessment method was used to evaluate the dietary risks of 2 kinds of shellfish, Manila clams and mussels, in the Bohai Sea region for 5 different age groups.
The feature selection method effectively identified multi metallic element hazard factors related to PSP content. The random forest (RF) model showed the largest reductions in mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error(RMSE) for predicting GTX3 of gonyautoxin, with reductions of 8.0% (95%CI: –0.0821 to –0.0779, P<0.05) and 9.1% (95%CI: –0.0997 to –0.0823, P<0.05) respectively. The RF model exhibited lower predictive errors, with MAE and RMSE values of 0.147 and 0.183 respectively. The dietary risks of consuming Manila clams and mussels from the Bohai Sea area were acceptable for people in all 5 age groups.
The dynamic feature selection method proposed in this study, which integrates MIC and redundancy-complementarity evaluation, can effectively uncover synergistic and antagonistic effects among multiple metal elements, significantly improving PSP prediction accuracy.Meanwhile, the dietary risks of relevant bivalves for all 5 age groups remain within safe levels, providing scientific support and technical reference for the safety management of bivalves in the Bohai Sea.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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