This study aims to introduce the achievements and benefits of applying wheel/rail-force-based maintenance interval extension of the C80 series wagon in China.

Chinese wagons' existing maintenance strategy had left a certain safety margin for the characteristics of widely running range, unstable service environment and submission to transportation organization requirements. To reduce maintenance costs, China railway (CR) has attempted to extend the maintenance interval since 2020. The maintenance cycle of C80 series heavy haul wagons is extended by three months (no stable routing) or 50,000 km (regular routing). However, in the meantime, the alarming rate of the running state, a key index to reflect the severe degree of hunting stability, by the train performance detection system (TPDS) for the C80 series heavy haul wagons has increased significantly.

The present paper addresses a big data statistical way to evaluate the risk of allowing the C80 series heavy haul wagons to remain in operation longer than stipulated by the maintenance interval initial set. Through the maintenance and wayside-detector data, which is divided into three stages, the extension period (three months), the current maintenance period and the previous maintenance period, this method reveals the alarming rate of hunting was correlated with maintenance interval. The maintainability of wagons will be achieved by utilizing wagon performance degradation modeling with the state of the wheelset and the often-contact side bearing. This paper also proposes a statistical model to return to the average safety level of the previous maintenance period's baseline through correct alarming thresholds for unplanned corrective maintenance.

The paper proposes an approach to reduce safety risk due to maintenance interval extension by effective maintenance program. The results are expected to help the railway company make the optimal solution to balance safety and the economy.