The study aims to provide a basis for the effective use of safety-related information data and a quantitative assessment way for the occurrence probability of the safety risk such as the fatigue fracture of the key components.

The fatigue crack growth rate is of dispersion, which is often used to accurately describe with probability density. In view of the external dispersion caused by the load, a simple and applicable probability expression of fatigue crack growth rate is adopted based on the fatigue growth theory. Considering the isolation among the pairs of crack length a and crack formation time t (a~t data) obtained from same kind of structural parts, a statistical analysis approach of t distribution is proposed, which divides the crack length in several segments. Furthermore, according to the compatibility criterion of crack growth, that is, there is statistical development correspondence among a~t data, the probability model of crack growth rate is established.

The results show that the crack growth rate in the stable growth stage can be approximately expressed by the crack growth control curve da/dt = Q·a, and the probability density of the crack growth parameter Q represents the external dispersion; t follows two-parameter Weibull distribution in certain a values.

The probability density f(Q) can be estimated by using the probability model of crack growth rate, and a calculation example shows that the estimation method is effective and practical.