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Sensitivity analysis of effective parameters in water saturation estimation by using Monte Carlo simulation
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Rahman Norouzia, Hossein Mosaddegha, Ali Kadkhodaieb, d, *, Vali Mehdipourc
Petroleum Research | 2026, 11(1) : 139 - 149
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Petroleum Research | 2026, 11(1): 139-149
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Sensitivity analysis of effective parameters in water saturation estimation by using Monte Carlo simulation
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Rahman Norouzia, Hossein Mosaddegha, Ali Kadkhodaieb, d, *, Vali Mehdipourc
Affiliations
  • aDepartment of Geology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
  • bEarth Science Department, Faculty of Natural Science, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
  • cExploration and Production Department, Dana Energy Company, Tehran, Iran
  • dDepartment of Environmental Geology, Medical and Environmental Research Centrer, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
Published: 2026-03-10 doi: 10.1016/j.ptlrs.2025.07.003
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Water saturation is one of the primary and influential parameters in evaluating the reservoir quality of hydrocarbon formations and is typically calculated by the Archie equation. This equation employs porosity, cementation factor, saturation exponent, tortuosity factor, formation water resistivity and true reservoir resistivity for water saturation calculation. It should be noted that uncertainty in these values can directly affect water saturation calculation, so the correct water saturation calculation in hydrocarbon reservoirs is essential, and any mistakes in its calculation leads to optimistic or pessimistic consideration of interval of interest. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method based on well-logging data were used to investigate the uncertainty of effective parameters in water saturation in the framework of Archie's equation. In this regard, the water saturation is calculated in three wells for the Sarvak reservoir in one of southwestern Iran's giant oilfields. The Monte Carlo simulation was implemented using MATLAB software for each parameter causing uncertainty in the water saturation model, and the distribution function is obtained for each parameter. Water saturation is as a distribution for each depth by investigating the uncertainty of each parameter affecting the Archie equation and is calculated in optimistic, probable and pessimistic cases. The results show that using well-logging data, the mentioned method can calculate the uncertainty of water saturation.

Archie's equation  /  Water saturation (Sw)  /  Porosity (Ø)  /  Cementation factor (m)  /  True formation resistivity (Rt)  /  Monte Carlo simulation  /  Uncertainty  /  Sensitivity  /  Sarvak formation
Rahman Norouzi, Hossein Mosaddegh, Ali Kadkhodaie, Vali Mehdipour. Sensitivity analysis of effective parameters in water saturation estimation by using Monte Carlo simulation[J]. Petroleum Research, 2026 , 11 (1) : 139 -149 . DOI: 10.1016/j.ptlrs.2025.07.003
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Article Info
doi: 10.1016/j.ptlrs.2025.07.003
  • Receive Date：2024-11-12
  • Online Date：2026-10-14
  • Published：2026-03-10
Article Data
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History
  • Received：2024-11-12
  • Revised：2025-07-09
  • Accepted：2025-07-10
Affiliations
    aDepartment of Geology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
    bEarth Science Department, Faculty of Natural Science, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
    cExploration and Production Department, Dana Energy Company, Tehran, Iran
    dDepartment of Environmental Geology, Medical and Environmental Research Centrer, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

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* E-mail addresses: , (A. Kadkhodaie).
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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