This study aimed to predict the potential suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. in China，clarify the correlation between climate change and its distribution，thereby providing a theoretical basis for its artificial cultivation，introduction，development，and utilization.

Based on the 62 distribution points of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. and 19 environmental factors，the maximum entropy model （MaxEnt） was used to predict its potential suitable habitats under current and future （2050s and 2090s） climate change scenarios （SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5）. The actual suitable habitats were calculated through overlay analysis with land use types. Key environmental factors were screened based on their contribution rates and response curves. Based on changes in suitable habitat area and centroid migration，the chan-ging trends in potential suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. under future climate change were determined.

The current total suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. in China was 37.59 × 10⁴ km²，mainly distributed in Guangdong，Guangxi，Hainan，Fujian，Taiwan，and Yunnan. The area of lowly suitable habitat was 24.67 × 10⁴ km²，the area of moderately suitable habitat was 10.09 × 10⁴ km²，and the area of highly suitable habitat was 2.83 × 10⁴ km² respectively. Overlay analysis was performed on geographical layers of forestland and shrubland，which showed that the actual suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. was 21.56 × 10⁴ km². The four key environmental factors affecting the growth of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. was in the order of contribution rate as minimum temperature of coldest month （73.5%） > precipitation of driest month （9.7%） > annual precipitation （6.2%） > mean diurnal temperature range （4.0%），with minimum temperature of coldest month being the dominant environmental factor. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario，the suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. generally showed an overall expanding trend. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario，although the lowly suitable habitats continued to increase by the 2090s，the moderately and highly suitable habitats shrank sharply，resulting in a declining trend in the total suitable habitats. In addition，under the SSP1-2.6 scenario，the centroid of the suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. in China showed no obvious east-west migration but exhibited a continuous northward migration trend. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario，the centroid of suitable habitats rapidly migrated westward and then remained relatively stable in longitude，while continuously migrating northward in latitude.

Under future climate change scenarios，the distribution trends and area changes of suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. in China will show different response patterns. The suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. in Guangdong and Guangxi will continue to increase under the low radiative forcing scenario but shrink severely under the high radiative forcing scenario. Therefore，meteorological monitoring and artificial intervention should be strengthened，and changes in crop varieties should be considered in a timely manner. The suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. in Fujian，Yunnan，and Guizhou will continue to increase. Planting trials should be conducted before introduction and cultivation in newly suitable habitats，while economic viability and feasibility should also be considered. The suitable habitats of Alpinia oxyphylla Miq. in Hainan and Taiwan remain relatively stable，but attention should be paid to the decline in suitable habitat levels caused by climate change. Artificial intervention measures should be taken in a timely manner based on environmental factors and meteorological monitoring results to ensure the quality of medicinal materials.