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Cause Analysis and Risk Assessment of Aviation Safety Accidents Based on STPA-Bayes Model
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Xiao-zhe SUN, Jia-xuan WANG, Jian-zhong YANG
Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(20) : 8714 - 8724
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Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(20): 8714-8724
• Papers·Aeronautics and Astronautics •
Cause Analysis and Risk Assessment of Aviation Safety Accidents Based on STPA-Bayes Model
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Xiao-zhe SUN, Jia-xuan WANG, Jian-zhong YANG
Affiliations
  • School of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
Published: 2025-07-18 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405472
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The identification of aviation accident risk factors through the system-theoretic process analysis(STPA) method is a qualitative analysis process that does not allow for a quantitative assessment of the extent to which each factor contributes to an accident. To address the above problem, a qualitative and quantitative analysis method combining STPA and Bayesian network (BN) was proposed. Taking the JetBlue A320 aircraft flap accident as an example, the control structure model of the flap control system was constructed by STPA method, and the potential unsafe control behaviors and related causal scenarios were analyzed comprehensively. Then, the results of STPA qualitative analysis were transformed into a Bayesian network model that could be quantitatively analyzed, so as to identify the internal interaction logic and the highly influential factors in the accident, and put forward comprehensive safety recommendations. The analysis results show that the main factor leading to the accident is the failure of hydraulic source, while the failure of power transmission unit (PTU) and the leakage of hydraulic line are the main causes of hydraulic source failure, with a critical importance of 0.688 and 0.299, respectively.

accident analysis  /  systems-theoretic process analysis(STPA)  /  Bayesian network(BN)  /  causal analysis  /  risk assessment
Xiao-zhe SUN, Jia-xuan WANG, Jian-zhong YANG. Cause Analysis and Risk Assessment of Aviation Safety Accidents Based on STPA-Bayes Model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (20) : 8714 -8724 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405472
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Year 2025 volume 25 Issue 20
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Article Info
doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2405472
  • Receive Date：2024-07-21
  • Online Date：2026-05-13
  • Published：2025-07-18
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  • Received：2024-07-21
  • Revised：2025-04-12
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    School of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
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光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
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栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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