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The dispatchable potential of charging stations represents the feasible solution space for optimizing their bidding strategies in the electricity market. However, the uncertainty in the access times of electric vehicles complicates the accurate assessment of this dispatchable potential. To address this issue, an uncertainty analysis method was proposed for evaluating the dispatchable potential of charging stations, taking into account the stochastic nature of electric vehicle charging times. Firstly, a generalized energy storage model for various types of electric vehicle clusters was established using Minkowski summation theory. Secondly, the impact of the randomness in electric vehicle arrival and departure times on the dispatchable potential of charging stations was analyzed. The discretized probability density functions of these times were mapped to the probability distributions of individual electric vehicle model parameters. By integrating these with the generalized energy storage model of electric vehicle clusters, the probabilistic characteristics of the dispatchable potential across various electric vehicle clusters were derived. Furthermore, the probability distribution characteristics of the dispatchable potential of charging stations were derived by aggregating the parameters of various electric vehicle clusters using convolution operations. Finally, simulations were conducted in MATLAB and compared with Monte Carlo simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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