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The Risk Assessment Model Based on Catastrophe Theory and Fuzzy Inference System
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Chang-qi YANG, Mei-cen JIANG, Ling LIN
Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(22) : 9586 - 9594
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Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(22): 9586-9594
Papers·Aeronautics and Astronautics
The Risk Assessment Model Based on Catastrophe Theory and Fuzzy Inference System
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Chang-qi YANG, Mei-cen JIANG, Ling LIN
Affiliations
  • Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China
Published: 2025-08-08 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404845
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In the ASIST system, data on 86 917 abnormal events from 2017 to 2023 are collected as research objects, and an indicator system for abnormal events was established. To ensure the safety of aviation operations, accurate and reliable risk assessment models were developed to analyze abnormal events in depth, thereby achieving effective risk management. Firstly, the principle of catastrophe theory was introduced into the fuzzy inference system, which enables it to better handle complex issues and enhance the accuracy of evaluations. Then, a risk assessment model based on catastrophe theory and fuzzy inference system was developed to assess the risks of abnormal aviation events. Additionally, 56 cases with detailed background information records were selected for instance analysis, and compared with the cloud model, to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the model. Finally, relevant indicators were controlled using fuzzy methods, providing guidance for the safety management work of aviation operations.

risk assessment  /  abnormal events  /  catastrophe theory  /  fuzzy inference system  /  risk indicators
Chang-qi YANG, Mei-cen JIANG, Ling LIN. The Risk Assessment Model Based on Catastrophe Theory and Fuzzy Inference System[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (22) : 9586 -9594 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404845
Year 2025 volume 25 Issue 22
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Article Info
doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404845
  • Receive Date:2024-06-28
  • Online Date:2026-02-11
  • Published:2025-08-08
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  • Received:2024-06-28
  • Revised:2025-04-28
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    Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China
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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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