In order to study the relationship between rainfall and regional geological disaster risk, construct the meteorological warning model of geological disasters in Huangshui Basin, and provide reference for the geological disaster warning work in the basin. Huangshui Basin in Qinghai Province was taken as an example, where the susceptibility to geological hazards was evaluated using the information value method. The independence of each factor was tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient, and the accuracy of the evaluation results was assessed through the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC). Subsequently, a geological-rainfall coupling model was also established using the logistic regression method, incorporating rainfall data, to carry out geological disaster meteorological risk warning and verification. The results show that Huangshui Basin geological disasters of very high susceptibility area and high susceptibility area is mainly distributed in the river valley plain zone and its tributaries at all levels in the middle and lower reaches of the two sides, the region is a geological disaster area. The results of the susceptibility evaluation are assessed for precision, and an AUC value of 0.785 is found. Geological-rainfall coupled warning model in the susceptibility value, the day rainfall, the first 1 day rainfall, the first 2 days day rainfall, the first 2 days of rainfall and the first 3 days of rainfall on the disaster are all positive, the model's prediction accuracy for the occurrence of geological disasters is 84.2%, and the AUC value is 0.864. Based on the five typical geological disasters that occurred in Huangshui Basin on 29th August 2020, the established geological-rainfall coupling model was verified, and it is found that with the geological-rainfall coupling model warning, four geological disasters reach the first warning level, and the other one reaches the second warning level. Combined with the warning rainfall threshold, the model was used to achieve the early warning of the landslide in Hongyagou Village on 5 September 2024. It can be seen that the constructed meteorological early warning model for geological disasters in the Huangshui Basin has a good early warning effect and a relatively high prediction accuracy rate, which can provide references for disaster prevention and mitigation for relevant departments.