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Extremely Short-term Prediction Method and Applicability Analysis of Seaplane Motion Based on Time Series Model
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Run-song ZHOU1, Ai-hua WU2, Wei ZHANG2, Jue GONG3, *
Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(18) : 7859 - 7865
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Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(18): 7859-7865
Papers·Aeronautics and Astronautics
Extremely Short-term Prediction Method and Applicability Analysis of Seaplane Motion Based on Time Series Model
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Run-song ZHOU1, Ai-hua WU2, Wei ZHANG2, Jue GONG3, *
Affiliations
  • 1 Qingdao Innovation and Development Base, Harbin Engineering University, Qingdao 266000, China
  • 2 The Fifth Military Representative Office Stationed in Xi’an with Empty Equipment, Xi’an 710000, China
  • 3 AVIC Xi’an Flight Automatic Control Research Institute, Xi’an 710076, China
Published: 2025-06-28 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404967
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The extremely short-term prediction of seaplane motion can provide the rocking motion posture over the next few seconds, which is considered essential for ensuring safety during take-off and landing phases under adverse wind and wave conditions. Although some research has been conducted on extremely short-term prediction methods for seaplane motion, limited attention has been given to analyzing differences in the applicability of various methods. In this context, the NACA TN 2929 aircraft was taken as an example, and the three degree of freedom motion simulation data under typical working conditions were calculated based on potential flow theory. To compare the forecasting performance under different forecasting conditions, three typical extremely short-term prediction of seaplane motion models, namely AR (auto-regressive), LSTM (long short term memory), and TCN (temporal convolutional network), were constructed. The results show that compared to the AR model, the LSTM and TCN neural network models exhibit superior forecasting accuracy for longer prediction durations, effectively enabling accurate predictions of the heave, roll, and pitch motions of the seaplane at the ten-second level, providing a valuable theoretical reference for the selection of seaplane motion prediction algorithms.

extremely short-term prediction of seaplane motion  /  auto-regressive model  /  long short term memory network  /  temporal convolutional network
Run-song ZHOU, Ai-hua WU, Wei ZHANG, Jue GONG. Extremely Short-term Prediction Method and Applicability Analysis of Seaplane Motion Based on Time Series Model[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (18) : 7859 -7865 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404967
Year 2025 volume 25 Issue 18
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Article Info
doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404967
  • Receive Date:2024-07-03
  • Online Date:2025-12-17
  • Published:2025-06-28
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  • Received:2024-07-03
  • Revised:2025-03-19
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Affiliations
    1 Qingdao Innovation and Development Base, Harbin Engineering University, Qingdao 266000, China
    2 The Fifth Military Representative Office Stationed in Xi’an with Empty Equipment, Xi’an 710000, China
    3 AVIC Xi’an Flight Automatic Control Research Institute, Xi’an 710076, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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