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XGBoost-Artifical Neural Networks for Secondary Return Water Temperature Prediction in Thermal Stations
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Dong WEI1, 2, Chuan MA1, Jian-min MA3
Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(17) : 7226 - 7237
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Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(17): 7226-7237
Papers-Automation and Computational Technology
XGBoost-Artifical Neural Networks for Secondary Return Water Temperature Prediction in Thermal Stations
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Dong WEI1, 2, Chuan MA1, Jian-min MA3
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100010, China
  • 2 Key Laboratory of Intelligent Processing for Building Big Data, Beijing 100044, China
  • 3 Beijing Materials Handling Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100010, China
Published: 2025-06-18 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404981
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To address the challenges of high-dimensional features, large computational demand, and difficulty in improving the accuracy of secondary return water temperature prediction models for heat stations, a secondary return water temperature prediction model based on the xtreme gradient boosting-artifical neural network(XGBoost-ANN) was proposed. The feature screening layer uses XGBoost algorithm to calculate the importance scores of the original data features and determine the main features that affect the secondary backwater temperature, thus reducing the complexity of the model and improving the computational efficiency. Three layers of feedforward ANN were trained by Bayesian regularization algorithm as the secondary backwater temperature prediction layer, and the initial weights and thresholds of the ANN model were optimized by grey wolf optimizer (GWO) algorithm. The weights and thresholds of the ANN model were represented by grey wolf position vector. The fitness function was introduced to evaluate the performance of each set of weights and thresholds to help the model avoid falling into local optimality at the initial stage of training, so as to improve the performance and generalization ability of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that the constructed XGBoost-GWO-ANN secondary return water temperature prediction model achieved significant improvements. Compared to the model before feature filtering, the root mean squared error(RMSE) is reduced by 26.8%, the R2 is increased by 11.3%, and the model inference time is shortened by 46.1%. Furthermore, the optimization of the initial ANN weights and thresholds using the GWO algorithm improve the RMSE by 20.0% and the R2 by 3.4% compared to the unoptimized ANN model. These results indicate that the accuracy and generalization ability of the proposed prediction model are effectively enhanced.

centralized heating  /  heat station system  /  neural network  /  XGBoost  /  secondary return water temperature prediction
Dong WEI, Chuan MA, Jian-min MA. XGBoost-Artifical Neural Networks for Secondary Return Water Temperature Prediction in Thermal Stations[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (17) : 7226 -7237 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404981
Year 2025 volume 25 Issue 17
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Article Info
doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2404981
  • Receive Date:2024-07-03
  • Online Date:2025-12-15
  • Published:2025-06-18
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  • Received:2024-07-03
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Affiliations
    1 School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100010, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Intelligent Processing for Building Big Data, Beijing 100044, China
    3 Beijing Materials Handling Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100010, China
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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