Predicting the emission reduction potential and cost of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that aligns with China’s national conditions is essential for advancing the SAF industry and achieving carbon neutrality goals. Based on the principles of international comparability and independent controllability, a lifecycle carbon emission reduction model was developed for two technological pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). This model forecasted the emission reduction and cost associated with SAF in China’s civil aviation sector from 2025 to 2060.The results indicate that the HEFA pathway, which is suitable for implementation between 2025 and 2030 using waste oils as feedstock, achieves a carbon emissions reduction of 61.3 kgCO_2e/GJ, contributing to an overall reduction of 84.4%. This associated cost ranges from 0 to 1 025.9 CNY/tCO_2e when compared to traditional aviation kerosene. In contrast, the FT pathway-primarily developed between 2030 and 2060 utilizing municipal solid waste as raw material yields the highest carbon emissions reduction at 68.4 kgCO_2e/GJ. Furthermore, routes employing agricultural or municipal solid waste exhibit lower abatement costs than those utilizing forestry waste. Considering China’s specific national conditions, it is determined the FT route utilizing agricultural waste as feedstock is more appropriate for development as the main SAF production technology after 2030 due to its abundant raw materials and comparatively lower abatement costs. Projections suggest that by 2060, reductions in China’s civil aviation SAF could reach approximately 17 177 million tons to 19 819 million tons. From a possible scenario spanning from 2025 to 2060, it is estimated that cumulative carbon abatement costs will amount to between 11 063 to 45 828 billion CNY, this corresponds with a marginal carbon abatement cost ranging from 220 to 697 CNY/tCO_2e.