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Ecological Security Assessment and Multi-scenario Pattern Prediction of Mountain Cities: A Case Study of Chongqing
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Qi-lin SHEN, Feng-yun MOU*, Shi-rou ZHU, Zhi-xian ZHU
Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(6) : 2627 - 2636
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Science Technology and Engineering | 2025, 25(6): 2627-2636
Papers·Environmental and Safe Science
Ecological Security Assessment and Multi-scenario Pattern Prediction of Mountain Cities: A Case Study of Chongqing
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Qi-lin SHEN, Feng-yun MOU*, Shi-rou ZHU, Zhi-xian ZHU
Affiliations
  • Smart City College, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 402260, China
Published: 2025-02-28 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402280
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Land ecological security is the core of sustainable use of land resources, and land use changes caused by human activities change the structure and function of ecosystems, which have a serious impact on the regional ecological security system. In order to explore the changes in ecological security in Chongqing in recent years and in 2030, Chongqing was taken as the research object and PLUS (patch-level land use simulation) model was employed to simulate land use changes under the scenarios of natural development, ecological priority and development priority in 2030. Based on the ecological perspective, an ecological security evaluation index system was constructed, and the mutation model was combined to quantitatively evaluate the level of land ecological security. The results show that the spatial distribution of land use types in Chongqing is quite different, the cultivated land area decreased by 3 995.14 km2, and the construction land area increased by 1 147.36 km2, realizing rapid urban development. At the same time, 64.53%, 67.31% and 55.97% were relatively safe or above under the three scenarios. The spatial pattern of ecological security in Chongqing is opposite to the spatial pattern of population density and GDP, and consistent with the spatial pattern of natural data such as vegetation cover and slope. Through the ecological assessment of land use changes in previous years and under different scenarios, it provides a basis for high-quality coordinated development of ecology and economy.

land use  /  ecological safety assessment  /  multi-scenario simulation  /  mutational progressional method
Qi-lin SHEN, Feng-yun MOU, Shi-rou ZHU, Zhi-xian ZHU. Ecological Security Assessment and Multi-scenario Pattern Prediction of Mountain Cities: A Case Study of Chongqing[J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2025 , 25 (6) : 2627 -2636 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402280
Year 2025 volume 25 Issue 6
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1671-1815.2402280
  • Receive Date:2024-03-31
  • Online Date:2025-07-27
  • Published:2025-02-28
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  • Received:2024-03-31
  • Revised:2024-12-11
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    Smart City College, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 402260, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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