Objective To explore the independent influencing factors of the prognosis of patients after radical resection for colon cancer and establish a nomogram prognosis prediction model based on preoperative inflammatory immune indexes neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) and tumor markers carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9). Methods The clinicopathological data of 185 patients with colon cancer who underwent radical resection for colon cancer in the General Surgery Department of the Lanzhou University Second Hospital from April 2014 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the preoperative NLR, LMR, CEA and CA19-9 for predicting the best cut-off value of overall survival situation and grouping was performed according to the best cut-off value of NLR and LMR. The χ2 test was used to analyze the relationship between different NLR and LMR groups and clinicopathological characteristics in colon cancer patients. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to analyze the influence of different clinicopathological characteristics on the overall survial (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the independent factors influencing patient prognosis. R4.1.1 software was used to draw a nomogram prediction model of DFS for patients after radical colon cancer surgery at 1, 2 and 3 years, and the performance of the prediction model was evaluated, and then using X-tile software stratified the model according to the nomogram risk score to explore further the clinical value of this model. Results The ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of NLR, LMR, CEA and CA19-9 were 0.784, 0.672, 0.727 and 0.656 respectively, and the optimal cut-off values were 3.40, 3.25, 4.30 ng/ml and 21.82 U/ml respectively. NLR was related to the the depth of invasion, maximum tumor diameter and preoperative CEA (P<0.05), and LMR was related to the depth of invasion, tumor location and maximum tumor diameter (P<0.05). Univariate analysis showed that lymph node metastasis, histological type, clinical stage, NLR, LMR, CEA and CA19-9 were associated with OS and DFS of patients with colon cancer after radical resection(P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that NLR, CEA and histological type were independent factors influencing OS of patients after radical resection for colon cancer (P<0.05); NLR, LMR, CEA, CA19-9 and clinical stage were independent factors influencing DFS of patients after radical resection for colon cancer (P<0.05), of which LMR is a protective factor. A nomogram prediction model including NLR, LMR, CEA, CA19-9 and clinical stage was constructed. The internal validation consistency index (C index) of the model was 0.851. The calibration curve indicated that the model had a good degree of discrimination, and the DFS of patients in the low-risk group was obviously better than that in the middle- and high-risk groups (P<0.001). Conclusions Preoperative NLR, LMR, CEA,CA19-9 and clinical stage are related to the prognosis of colon cancer patients. The nomogram model constructed based on NLR, LMR,CEA, CA19-9 and clinical stage has good accuracy, discrimination and clinical utility.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |