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Objective To analyze the risk factors of esophago-gastric fundal varices (EGV) in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related compensated cirrhosis, and to compare the clinical performance of multiple noninvasive prediction models for EGV evaluation. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis from two centers from January 2017 to December 2019. All patients underwent biochemical examination, gastroscopy, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM). AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), Fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4) and LSM-spleen diameter (SD)-to-platelet ratio score (LSPS) were calculated. According to the results of gastroscopy, they were divided into EGV and non-EGV group. The high-risk factors of EGV were explored by binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the clinical performance of each indicator in predicting EGV. Results A total of 470 patients were enrolled, including 292 in the non-EGV group and 178 in the EGV group. Logistic regression analysis showed low PLT (platelet)(OR=0.99, 95%CI 0.98-0.99), high SD (spleen diameter)(OR=1.02, 95%CI 1.01-1.03) and high LSM(OR=1.04, 95%CI 1.02-1.07) were high risk factors for EGV (all P<0.05). The AUC of LSPS in predicting EGV [0.75(95%CI 0.71-0.79)] was significantly higher than that of PLT [0.72(95%CI 0.67-0.76)], SD [0.69(95%CI 0.64-0.73)], LSM [0.67(95%CI 0.63-0.72)], APRI [0.69(95%CI 0.65-0.74)] and FIB-4 [0.66(95%CI 0.62-0.71)](P<0.05). The LSPS score in EGV group was significantly higher than that in non-EGV group [2.7(1.3, 5.0) vs. 1.0(0.5, 1.7), P<0.001]. With the aggravation of EGV, LSPS score showed an upward trend (r=0.426, P<0.001). The cutoff value of LSPS for high risk of EGV was >3.5, the corresponding specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) ratio were 93.6% and 79.8% respectively. The cutoff value of LSPS for low risk of EGV was<1.3, its sensitivity and negative predictive value were 75.5% and 81.1% respectively. Conclusions Incorporating three risk factors including low PLT, high LSM and SD, the LSPS in predicting EGV in patients with compensated hepatitis B cirrhosis is better than ARPI, FIB-4, or LSM, and can reduce the need for gastroscopy.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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