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Article(id=1322924563104936863, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, issueId=1322924415817757501, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.002, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1778774400000, receivedDateStr=2026-05-15, revisedDate=1783872000000, revisedDateStr=2026-07-13, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793339394594, onlineDateStr=2026-10-30, pubDate=1788969600000, pubDateStr=2026-09-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793339394594, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-30, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793339394594, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793339394594, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322924415817757501, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, year='2026', volume='40', issue='17', pageStart='2961', pageEnd='3152', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1788969600000', pubDateStr='2026-09-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793339359478, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793343089343, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1322940060072542250, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, issueId=1322924415817757501, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1322940060072542251, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, issueId=1322924415817757501, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=2968, endPage=2974, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322924563297874848, articleId=1322924563104936863, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, language=EN, title=Lagged effect analysis of influencing factors for frailty onset in Chinese older adults, columnId=1322924477746655521, journalTitle=Chinese Nursing Research, columnName=Special Planning-Chronic Disease Frailty, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To explore the nonlinear exposure-lagged characteristics of various influencing factors for frailty in Chinese older adults using the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM),and to identify the lag windows corresponding to the peak effects of each risk factor, thereby providing evidence for phased and precise frailty prevention.

Methods

Data from the 2011,2013,and 2015 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS) were used to obtain information on frailty,cognitive function, depression, activities of daily living,and demographic characteristics.A DLNM was constructed for analysis.

Results

A total of 745 older adults were included.Different factors showed marked lag heterogeneity:the effects of physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain peaked within relatively short lag periods.In contrast,the peak effect of hearing impairment appeared with a longer delay.Although visual impairment showed a trend toward delayed effects,the association was not statistically significant.

Conclusions

The time to peak lagged effects of factors associated with frailty onset varies among Chinese older adults,indicating different pathways and temporal windows through which these factors act.Physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain primarily affect individual functional status through short-term effects,whereas sensory impairments such as hearing and visual dysfunction tend to exhibit delayed cumulative effects.Phased interventions should be implemented based on these distinct lag characteristics to achieve early prevention and long-term management of frailty.

, authors=Songyi LI1, Qinghua ZHU1, Junying HOU2, Junpeng LI1, Xiaoyan LI1, Xinru WANG1, Xiaohan CUI1, Yuanfen LIU1, Yuxiu LIU1, Lili JI1, authorsList=Songyi LI, Qinghua ZHU, Junying HOU, Junpeng LI, Xiaoyan LI, Xinru WANG, Xiaohan CUI, Yuanfen LIU, Yuxiu LIU, Lili JI, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Lili JI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322924563834745763, articleId=1322924563104936863, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, language=CN, title=中国老年人衰弱发生影响因素的滞后效应分析, columnId=1322924477901844771, journalTitle=护理研究, columnName=衰弱专题, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

运用分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）探究我国老年人衰弱各类影响因素的非线性暴露-滞后特征，明确各危险因素作用峰值对应的滞后时间窗口，为老年衰弱分阶段精准防控提供依据。

方法

采用2011年、2013年、2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）数据，获取老年人衰弱、认知功能、抑郁、日常活动能力、人口学资料等相关信息，构建分布式滞后非线性模型。

结果

共纳入745名老年人，不同影响因素呈现明显的滞后异质性：运动情况、日常活动能力异常、抑郁、自评健康状况较差及疼痛的效应在较短滞后期内达到峰值；相比之下，听力障碍的效应峰值出现相对滞后；视力障碍虽呈现延迟影响趋势，但关联性无统计学意义。

结论

中国老年人衰弱发生相关因素的滞后效应达峰时间存在差异，不同类型因素在衰弱发生过程中的作用路径及时间窗口不同。运动情况、日常活动能力异常、抑郁、自评健康状况较差及疼痛主要通过短期影响个体功能状态发挥作用，而视听功能障碍等因素则呈现延迟累积效应。应根据不同滞后特征实施分阶段干预，以实现对衰弱的早期预防与长期管理。

, authors=李松益1, 朱清华1, 侯军营2, 李浚鹏1, 李晓妍1, 王欣茹1, 崔潇涵1, 刘元芬1, 刘聿秀1, 季丽丽1, *, *, authorsList=李松益, 朱清华, 侯军营, 李浚鹏, 李晓妍, 王欣茹, 崔潇涵, 刘元芬, 刘聿秀, 季丽丽, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=季丽丽, authorNote=

李松益，硕士研究生在读

, correspAuthorsNote=
季丽丽，E-mail:
JI Lili, E-mail:
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and frailty among community-dwelling older adults:a longitudinal study[J].BMC Geriatrics,2022,22(1):672., articleTitle=Bidirectional association between visual impairment and frailty among community-dwelling older adults:a longitudinal study, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322924573984960528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=71, issue=4, pageStart=1167, pageEnd=1176, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=28, rfOrder=27, authorNames=Ning H T, Zhang H, Xie Z H, journalName=Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Ning H T,Zhang H,Xie Z H,et al.Relationship of hearing impairment,social participation and depressive symptoms to the incidence of frailty in a community cohort[J].Journal of the American Geriatrics Society,2023,71(4):1167-1176., articleTitle=Relationship of hearing impairment,social participation and depressive symptoms to the incidence of frailty in a community cohort, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322924574081429521, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=114, issue=null, pageStart=105108, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=29, rfOrder=28, authorNames=Jang Y S, Yun I, Park Y S, journalName=Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Jang Y S,Yun I,Park Y S,et al.Association between changes in sensory impairment and functional disability in older adults:a longitudinal study[J].Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics,2023,114:105108., articleTitle=Association between changes in sensory impairment and functional disability in older adults:a longitudinal study, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1322924564166095780, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322924564174484389, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, companyId=1322924564166095780, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1School of Nursing, Shandong Second Medical University, Shandong 261053 China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322924564187067302, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, companyId=1322924564166095780, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1山东第二医科大学护理学院，山东 261053)]), AuthorCompany(id=1322924564270953383, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322924564279341992, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, companyId=1322924564270953383, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2Wangliu Central Health Center, Weicheng District, Weifang City), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322924564287730601, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, companyId=1322924564270953383, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2潍坊市潍城区望留中心卫生院)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1322924569689994222, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Lagged effects of influencing factors on frailty incidence, figureFileSmall=qqKZskeiZ8ymaLZR5OuvlQ==, figureFileBig=PctZbUgxUDlK5BsBiMr/dw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322924569765491695, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, language=CN, label=图1, caption=衰弱发生影响因素滞后效应, figureFileSmall=qqKZskeiZ8ymaLZR5OuvlQ==, figureFileBig=PctZbUgxUDlK5BsBiMr/dw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322924570054898672, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

General information of the elderly（n=745）

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目2011年2013年2015年项目2011年2013年2015年
性别 男358(48.0)358(48.0)358(48.0)认知功能 正常548(73.6)523(70.2)496(66.6)
女387(52.0)387(52.0)387(52.0)异常197(26.4)222(29.8)249(33.4)
婚姻状况 已婚543(72.9)523(70.2)495(66.4)抑郁 无469(63.0)507(68.1)478(64.2)
未婚、离异或丧偶202(27.1)222(29.8)250(33.6)有276(37.0)238(31.9)267(35.8)
自评健康状况 好469(63.0)348(46.7)316(42.4)头痛 无638(85.6)682(91.5)621(83.4)
不好276(37.0)397(53.3)429(57.6)有107(14.4)63(8.5)124(16.6)
吸烟 不吸烟205(27.5)306(41.1)325(43.6)上肢疼痛 无617(82.8)635(85.2)583(78.3)
吸烟540(72.5)439(58.9)420(56.4)有128(17.2)110(14.8)162(21.7)
饮酒 不饮酒517(69.4)529(71.0)548(73.6)下肢疼痛 无567(76.1)591(79.3)568(76.2)
饮酒228(30.6)216(29.0)197(26.4)有178(23.9)154(20.7)177(23.8)
视力 没问题130(17.4)135(18.1)122(16.4)躯干疼痛 无548(73.6)585(78.5)559(75.0)
有问题615(82.6)610(81.9)623(83.6)有197(26.4)160(21.5)186(25.0)
听力 没问题255(34.2)227(30.5)178(23.9)剧烈运动 进行507(68.1)548(73.6)545(73.2)
有问题490(65.8)518(69.5)567(76.1)不进行238(31.9)197(26.4)200(26.8)
日常活动能力 正常609(81.7)599(80.4)569(76.4)中度运动 进行350(47.0)421(56.5)390(52.3)
异常136(18.3)146(19.6)176(23.6)不进行395(53.0)324(43.5)355(47.7)
跌倒 无592(79.5)712(95.6)584(78.4)轻度运动 进行103(13.8)118(15.8)123(16.5)
有153(20.5)33(4.4)161(21.6)不进行642(86.2)627(84.2)622(83.5)
共病 无415(55.7)371(49.8)295(39.6)社会参与情况 参与317(42.6)353(47.4)419(56.2)
有330(44.3)374(50.2)450(60.4)不参与428(57.4)392(52.6)326(43.8)
住院情况 无670(89.9)620(83.2)592(79.5)衰弱 无745(100.0)688(92.3)683(91.7)
有75(10.1)125(16.8)153(20.5)有0(0.0)57(7.7)62(8.3)
), ArticleFig(id=1322924571694871538, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

老年人一般情况（n=745）

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目2011年2013年2015年项目2011年2013年2015年
性别 男358(48.0)358(48.0)358(48.0)认知功能 正常548(73.6)523(70.2)496(66.6)
女387(52.0)387(52.0)387(52.0)异常197(26.4)222(29.8)249(33.4)
婚姻状况 已婚543(72.9)523(70.2)495(66.4)抑郁 无469(63.0)507(68.1)478(64.2)
未婚、离异或丧偶202(27.1)222(29.8)250(33.6)有276(37.0)238(31.9)267(35.8)
自评健康状况 好469(63.0)348(46.7)316(42.4)头痛 无638(85.6)682(91.5)621(83.4)
不好276(37.0)397(53.3)429(57.6)有107(14.4)63(8.5)124(16.6)
吸烟 不吸烟205(27.5)306(41.1)325(43.6)上肢疼痛 无617(82.8)635(85.2)583(78.3)
吸烟540(72.5)439(58.9)420(56.4)有128(17.2)110(14.8)162(21.7)
饮酒 不饮酒517(69.4)529(71.0)548(73.6)下肢疼痛 无567(76.1)591(79.3)568(76.2)
饮酒228(30.6)216(29.0)197(26.4)有178(23.9)154(20.7)177(23.8)
视力 没问题130(17.4)135(18.1)122(16.4)躯干疼痛 无548(73.6)585(78.5)559(75.0)
有问题615(82.6)610(81.9)623(83.6)有197(26.4)160(21.5)186(25.0)
听力 没问题255(34.2)227(30.5)178(23.9)剧烈运动 进行507(68.1)548(73.6)545(73.2)
有问题490(65.8)518(69.5)567(76.1)不进行238(31.9)197(26.4)200(26.8)
日常活动能力 正常609(81.7)599(80.4)569(76.4)中度运动 进行350(47.0)421(56.5)390(52.3)
异常136(18.3)146(19.6)176(23.6)不进行395(53.0)324(43.5)355(47.7)
跌倒 无592(79.5)712(95.6)584(78.4)轻度运动 进行103(13.8)118(15.8)123(16.5)
有153(20.5)33(4.4)161(21.6)不进行642(86.2)627(84.2)622(83.5)
共病 无415(55.7)371(49.8)295(39.6)社会参与情况 参与317(42.6)353(47.4)419(56.2)
有330(44.3)374(50.2)450(60.4)不参与428(57.4)392(52.6)326(43.8)
住院情况 无670(89.9)620(83.2)592(79.5)衰弱 无745(100.0)688(92.3)683(91.7)
有75(10.1)125(16.8)153(20.5)有0(0.0)57(7.7)62(8.3)
), ArticleFig(id=1322924571799729139, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Cumulative effects of factors influencing frailty

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目OR值95%CI项目OR值95%CI
婚姻状况0.64[0.35，1.16]住院情况2.37[0.97，5.79]
自评健康情况4.76[2.26，10.03]认知功能1.93[0.93，3.99]
吸烟1.78[0.99，3.15]抑郁4.83[2.44，9.57]
饮酒1.33[0.70，2.53]头痛1.58[0.59，4.25]
视力障碍1.90[0.72，5.01]上肢疼痛2.85[1.24，6.55]
听力障碍2.20[1.03，4.70]下肢疼痛2.33[1.09，5.01]
日常活动能力4.27[1.94，9.40]躯干疼痛2.30[1.07，4.97]
跌倒0.64[0.20，2.01]剧烈运动0.21[0.08，0.54]
共病1.16[0.67，2.01]轻度运动0.18[0.06，0.54]
), ArticleFig(id=1322924571875226612, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1220038315760373764, articleId=1322924563104936863, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

衰弱发生影响因素的累积效应

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目OR值95%CI项目OR值95%CI
婚姻状况0.64[0.35，1.16]住院情况2.37[0.97，5.79]
自评健康情况4.76[2.26，10.03]认知功能1.93[0.93，3.99]
吸烟1.78[0.99，3.15]抑郁4.83[2.44，9.57]
饮酒1.33[0.70，2.53]头痛1.58[0.59，4.25]
视力障碍1.90[0.72，5.01]上肢疼痛2.85[1.24，6.55]
听力障碍2.20[1.03，4.70]下肢疼痛2.33[1.09，5.01]
日常活动能力4.27[1.94，9.40]躯干疼痛2.30[1.07，4.97]
跌倒0.64[0.20，2.01]剧烈运动0.21[0.08，0.54]
共病1.16[0.67，2.01]轻度运动0.18[0.06，0.54]
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中国老年人衰弱发生影响因素的滞后效应分析
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李松益 1 , 朱清华 1 , 侯军营 2 , 李浚鹏 1 , 李晓妍 1 , 王欣茹 1 , 崔潇涵 1 , 刘元芬 1 , 刘聿秀 1 , 季丽丽 1, *, *
护理研究 | 衰弱专题 2026,40(17): 2968-2974
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护理研究 |衰弱专题 2026 , 40 (17) : 2968 -2974
中国老年人衰弱发生影响因素的滞后效应分析
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261053)])])]
李松益1, 朱清华1, 侯军营2, 李浚鹏1, 李晓妍1, 王欣茹1, 崔潇涵1, 刘元芬1, 刘聿秀1, 季丽丽1, *, *
作者信息
  • 1山东第二医科大学护理学院，山东 261053
  • 2潍坊市潍城区望留中心卫生院
通讯作者:
季丽丽，E-mail:
JI Lili, E-mail:
作者简介:

李松益，硕士研究生在读

Lagged effect analysis of influencing factors for frailty onset in Chinese older adults
Songyi LI1, Qinghua ZHU1, Junying HOU2, Junpeng LI1, Xiaoyan LI1, Xinru WANG1, Xiaohan CUI1, Yuanfen LIU1, Yuxiu LIU1, Lili JI1
Affiliations
  • 1School of Nursing, Shandong Second Medical University, Shandong 261053 China
  • 2Wangliu Central Health Center, Weicheng District, Weifang City
出版时间: 2026-09-10 doi: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.002
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摘要
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目的

运用分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）探究我国老年人衰弱各类影响因素的非线性暴露-滞后特征，明确各危险因素作用峰值对应的滞后时间窗口，为老年衰弱分阶段精准防控提供依据。

方法

采用2011年、2013年、2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）数据，获取老年人衰弱、认知功能、抑郁、日常活动能力、人口学资料等相关信息，构建分布式滞后非线性模型。

结果

共纳入745名老年人，不同影响因素呈现明显的滞后异质性：运动情况、日常活动能力异常、抑郁、自评健康状况较差及疼痛的效应在较短滞后期内达到峰值；相比之下，听力障碍的效应峰值出现相对滞后；视力障碍虽呈现延迟影响趋势，但关联性无统计学意义。

结论

中国老年人衰弱发生相关因素的滞后效应达峰时间存在差异，不同类型因素在衰弱发生过程中的作用路径及时间窗口不同。运动情况、日常活动能力异常、抑郁、自评健康状况较差及疼痛主要通过短期影响个体功能状态发挥作用，而视听功能障碍等因素则呈现延迟累积效应。应根据不同滞后特征实施分阶段干预，以实现对衰弱的早期预防与长期管理。

老年人  /  衰弱  /  运动  /  认知功能  /  日常活动能力  /  抑郁  /  视力障碍  /  滞后效应  /  影响因素
Objective

To explore the nonlinear exposure-lagged characteristics of various influencing factors for frailty in Chinese older adults using the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM),and to identify the lag windows corresponding to the peak effects of each risk factor, thereby providing evidence for phased and precise frailty prevention.

Methods

Data from the 2011,2013,and 2015 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS) were used to obtain information on frailty,cognitive function, depression, activities of daily living,and demographic characteristics.A DLNM was constructed for analysis.

Results

A total of 745 older adults were included.Different factors showed marked lag heterogeneity:the effects of physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain peaked within relatively short lag periods.In contrast,the peak effect of hearing impairment appeared with a longer delay.Although visual impairment showed a trend toward delayed effects,the association was not statistically significant.

Conclusions

The time to peak lagged effects of factors associated with frailty onset varies among Chinese older adults,indicating different pathways and temporal windows through which these factors act.Physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain primarily affect individual functional status through short-term effects,whereas sensory impairments such as hearing and visual dysfunction tend to exhibit delayed cumulative effects.Phased interventions should be implemented based on these distinct lag characteristics to achieve early prevention and long-term management of frailty.

older adults  /  frailty  /  exercise  /  cognitive function  /  activities of daily living  /  depression  /  visual impairment  /  lagged effect  /  influencing factors
李松益, 朱清华, 侯军营, 李浚鹏, 李晓妍, 王欣茹, 崔潇涵, 刘元芬, 刘聿秀, 季丽丽. 中国老年人衰弱发生影响因素的滞后效应分析. 护理研究, 2026 , 40 (17) : 2968 -2974 . DOI: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.002
Songyi LI, Qinghua ZHU, Junying HOU, Junpeng LI, Xiaoyan LI, Xinru WANG, Xiaohan CUI, Yuanfen LIU, Yuxiu LIU, Lili JI. Lagged effect analysis of influencing factors for frailty onset in Chinese older adults[J]. Chinese Nursing Research, 2026 , 40 (17) : 2968 -2974 . DOI: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.002
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《中国统计年鉴2025》数据显示，截至2024年，我国65岁及以上老年人口规模已达2.2亿人，占总人口的15.6%[1]。衰弱作为一种生理储备功能下降的老年健康问题，在老年人群中的患病率可达10%[2]。研究表明，衰弱会显著增加老年人出现功能衰退、跌倒、行动不便、失能、住院及死亡的风险，同时也会加剧医疗资源消耗，加重家庭与社会的双重负担[2]。衰弱具有可逆性，需在其影响因素作用达到峰值之前对其进行干预，以减轻对老年人健康的不良影响。既往对于衰弱影响因素的研究多采用Logistics回归分析[3-4]，但此方法无法刻画因素在时间维度上的滞后效应。部分研究采用Cox回归[5]或交叉滞后面板模型[6]对衰弱影响因素进行分析，但Cox回归主要关注的是基线测量的风险因素影响，而交叉滞后面板模型关注的是因素之间的潜在因果关系，这两种分析方式均不能刻画影响因素在不同时间尺度上的滞后效应且无法妥善处理非线性关系。分布式滞后非线性模型（distributed lag non-linear models，DLNM）通过交叉基函数联合拟合暴露-反应关系的非线性形态和滞后维数结构，以可视化滞后曲面图直观展示各暴露因素在不同时滞期的动态效应，并输出即时效应与累积效应，为识别衰弱影响因素达到峰值的滞后时间提供了方法[7]。鉴于此，本研究基于中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）数据，借助分布式滞后非线性模型揭示衰弱影响因素的非线性暴露，即其滞后效应及达峰滞后期，为捕捉老年衰弱精准防控的时间窗提供依据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料
本研究采用CHARLS数据库2011年、2013年、2015年3期数据。CHARLS数据库作为全国性的代表性调查，采用分层抽样的方式，涵盖我国中老年人的健康情况、社会经济情况以及家庭情况。CHARLS已获得北京大学机构审查委员会伦理审查（审批号：IRB00001052-11015）。纳入标准：基线年龄≥65岁。排除标准：3期调查未全部参加；基线时存在衰弱；衰弱相关指标（疲乏、握力不足、步速缓慢、身体活动量低及体重下降）缺失>1个。经过上述指标筛选后，本研究共纳入745名老年人。
1.2　变量选取
1.2.1　因变量
以有无衰弱为因变量。衰弱评估采用Wu等[8]修订并验证的方法，包含疲乏、握力不足、步速缓慢、身体活动量低及体重下降5个指标。选择包含上述5个指标中4个或5个指标的老年人进行分析，符合1个指标计1分，总分0~5分，得分≥3分定义为衰弱[5]。
1.2.2　自变量
自变量选择根据以往研究[9-11]和数据库中可用的变量，包括婚姻状况、自评健康情况、吸烟、饮酒、视力、听力、日常活动能力、跌倒、共病、住院情况、认知功能、抑郁、疼痛情况（头痛、上肢疼痛、下肢疼痛、躯干疼痛）、运动情况（剧烈运动、中度运动、轻度运动）、社会参与情况。采用Katz日常生活独立活动指数（Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living，Katz ADL量表）评估基础日常生活活动能力（basic activities of daily living，BADL）；以汉化原版Lawton-Brody工具性日常生活活动能力量表（Lawton-Brody Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale，Lawton-Brody IADL量表）评估工具性日常生活活动能力（instrumental activities of daily living，IADL），任一任务存在困难即视为功能受损[12]；共病定义为患有至少2种慢性病；认知功能采用简明精神状态量表，包括情景记忆和精神状态2个维度，涵盖定向、计算、绘图、即时单词回忆、延迟单词回忆5个方面，总分0~31分，得分越高，表明认知功能越好。以5岁为1个年龄段，在各自年龄组中得分低于年龄标准1个标准差则被定义为存在认知障碍[12]；抑郁采用10 条目流调中心抑郁量表简版（Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-10，CESD-10）评估，总分≥10分为有抑郁症状[13]。社会参与情况使用数据库中的参与数量与参与频率评估，都回答不参与定义为社会参与情况差。
1.3　统计学方法
本研究采用SPSS 26.0及R 4.2软件进行数据分析。定性资料以例数、百分比（%）表示，服从正态分布的定量资料以均数±标准差（x±s）表示。缺失数据采用R软件mice包进行多重插补。
1）变量筛选阶段：基于2011年、2013年、2015年纵向合并数据，采用glmnet包进行弹性网络正则化分析，通过十折交叉验证优化模型。为避免λ.min对应模型变量稳定性差的问题，选取误差在最小值1个标准误范围内的λ.1SE，以获得更稳定、更具代表性的变量。2）滞后模型构建阶段：将衰弱发生情况作为因变量（0=否，1=是），以弹性网络正则化筛选的变量为自变量，采用dlnm包构建分布式滞后非线性模型，通过交叉基函数同时刻画暴露-反应关系及其滞后效应。设置滞后结构为lag0~lag4，在滞后维度选取lag0、lag2、lag4作为节点进行拟合，lag1及lag3通过样条插值得到。以2015年数据为例，分析某变量A对衰弱发生的影响，其中lag0表示当前时点变量A的影响，lag2表示2013年变量A的影响，lag4表示2011年变量A的影响，lag1及lag3使用上述已绘制的曲线进行插值，以此类推。模型结果以各滞后时间点上的相对效应及其95%置信区间（95%CI）表示，并绘制滞后效应曲线。横轴为滞后时间，纵轴为相对效应（即在暴露后某个特定时间点，暴露因素的存在使得结局的瞬时变化速率（斜率）增加或减少的倍数）。曲线偏离1的程度反映该因素在相应滞后时间点的效应大小及方向。此外，计算各因素在整个滞后期（lag0~lag4）的累积效应，以评估其对衰弱发生的总体影响。所有统计检验均为双侧检验，检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
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2.1　一般情况
共计纳入745名老年人，男性占48.0%。2011年年龄（70.61±4.86）岁，2013年（72.54±5.11）岁，2015年（74.47±5.56）岁。详见表1。
2.2　弹性网络正则化分析
将老年人在2011年、2013年、2015年的纵向合并数据进行弹性网络正则化分析，共筛选到18个系数不为零的变量，详见图1。
2.3　分布式滞后非线性模型
结果显示，不同影响因素呈现出显著的滞后异质性：轻度运动、剧烈运动、日常活动能力异常、抑郁、自评健康状况差、上肢疼痛、下肢疼痛及躯干疼痛等因素表现为较短滞后效应，其效应曲线显示在暴露发生当年即达到峰值，随后效应逐渐下降，并在后续滞后期内趋近于相对效应=1。听力障碍的效应则表现为中期滞后特征，其效应曲线随滞后时间逐渐上升，并在暴露发生后第2年（约lag2）处达到峰值，随后逐渐下降趋近于相对效应=1。视力障碍的效应则表现为更长滞后趋势，其效应在较长滞后期，即暴露发生后第4年（约lag4）呈上升趋势，但在当前滞后范围内尚未观察到有统计学意义的关联性。饮酒的效应呈现从保护趋势向危险趋势过渡，跌倒、婚姻状况、吸烟、共病、头痛的效应呈现先下降后上升的趋势，住院情况、认知情况的效应出现先上升后下降的趋势，但关联未观察到统计学意义，详见图1。
累积效应显示，轻度运动（OR=0.18）、剧烈运动（OR=0.21）是衰弱发生的保护因素（P<0.05）；自评健康情况（OR=4.76）、听力异常（OR=2.20）、日常活动能力异常（OR=4.27）、抑郁（OR=4.83）、上肢疼痛（OR=2.85）、下肢疼痛（OR=2.33）、躯干疼痛（OR=2.30）是衰弱发生的危险因素（P<0.05），详见表2。
3　讨论
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本研究在中国老年人群中应用分布式滞后非线性模型，探讨衰弱影响因素的暴露–滞后效应关系。结果表明，不同影响因素呈现出明显滞后异质性：运动情况、日常活动能力异常、抑郁、自评健康状况较差及疼痛等因素的效应在较短滞后期内达到峰值；相比之下，听力障碍的效应峰值出现相对滞后；视力障碍虽呈现延迟影响趋势，但关联无统计学意义。
3.1　影响因素的效应峰值存在时序差异
研究发现，衰弱的影响效应峰值时序存在差异，原因可能与其作用于衰弱的不同路径机制与速度有关。效应峰值出现较早的因素主要通过直接影响机体功能状态、身体活动水平或炎症反应等途径，在较短时间内对机体产生影响，从而迅速导致衰弱发生[14-18]。效应峰值出现较晚的因素则可能通过影响社会参与、心理状态等间接路径逐步累积效应。因此，出现更长的滞后时间[19-20]。
3.2　运动是衰弱的保护因素且滞后峰值出现较早
本研究中，运动是衰弱的保护因素且滞后峰值出现较早。运动可以通过直接改善老年人肌肉力量、质量等方式直接改善老年人的身体功能[14]。因此，其对衰弱的影响可能在短期内达到峰值。除此之外，运动还可以通过减少血清肌抑素水平，促进肌细胞再生等方式，维持老年人的身体功能[21]，从而减少老年人衰弱的发生。
3.3　日常活动能力异常是衰弱发生的危险因素且效应峰值出现较早
日常活动能力异常是衰弱发生的危险因素且效应峰值出现较早。日常活动能力异常提示老年人已出现躯体功能受限[15]，而功能受限与疲乏、步速减慢等衰弱相关表现的出现密切相关。因此，其对衰弱的影响可在短期内达峰。研究表明，运动干预可通过有效增强下肢肌力、步态稳定性和平衡功能的方式[22]，有效改善日常活动能力。
3.4　抑郁是衰弱发生的危险因素且效应峰值出现较早
抑郁是衰弱发生的危险因素，且对衰弱的作用峰值出现较早。抑郁作为一种负面情绪，常可直接导致病人情绪低落、身体活动量减少、社交能力下降，从而在较短的时间内对机体功能产生负面影响，导致衰弱发生[18]。既往在基于分布式滞后非线性模型分析失能老年人影响因素的研究中发现，抑郁因素出现效应峰值相对较晚[23]，这种差异可能与结局指标在功能衰退过程中的阶段差异有关。衰弱通常被认为是机体功能下降过程中的早期可逆阶段，而失能则代表更为严重的功能受限状态[24]。因此，在以失能为结局时，抑郁的影响可能需要经过一定时间累积后才充分显现；而在衰弱阶段，其不良影响更容易在早期被捕捉，从而表现为效应峰值提前出现。
3.5　自评健康状况差是衰弱发生的危险因素且效应峰值滞后期较短
自评健康状况差是衰弱发生的危险因素，与既往研究结果[16]一致。本研究发现，自评健康状况对衰弱发生的作用主要集中于较短滞后期。自评健康状况在一定程度上反映了老年人现阶段的整体身体状况和生理储备情况，而较差的生理储备使个体在短期发生功能下降引起衰弱的发生[16]。既往研究在以失能为结局时观察到其效应峰值出现相对滞后[23]，提示不同功能结局阶段可能影响相关因素的时间效应表现。
3.6　疼痛是衰弱发生的危险因素且对效应滞后峰值出现较早
疼痛是衰弱发生的危险因素，与既往研究结果[25]一致。本研究中，疼痛对衰弱的作用滞后峰值出现较早。疼痛会直接影响个体的功能[17]，如导致身体活动减少及功能使用受限，加速机体功能下降，促进衰弱的发生，导致效应峰值出现较早。此外，长期慢性疼痛还可通过诱导慢性炎症反应，促进炎症因子如白细胞介素-6水平升高[26]，进一步导致多系统功能障碍和生理储备下降，增加衰弱发生的风险。
3.7　听力障碍是衰弱发生的危险因素且效应峰值相对滞后
既往研究显示，视听障碍是衰弱发生的危险因素[27-28]，本研究结果部分支持上述结论。本研究中，听力障碍是衰弱发生的危险因素且效应峰值出现相对滞后，而视力对衰弱发生的效应在症状发生后更晚时间开始有上升趋势，但无统计学意义，造成这种时间特征的差异可能与其评估方式有关。本研究中，听力障碍采用单一条目“听力状况怎么样？”进行评估。这种评估方式在基线阶段可能捕捉到的是轻度或中早期听力下降的个体，其机体仍具备较强的代偿机制（如通过注意力、情境线索弥补听觉缺失），从而维持相对较好的整体功能状态。然而，持续的听力损失会长期增加感知负荷并减少外界刺激输入，待机体代偿能力耗竭、身体功能障碍（如疲乏、握力下降）逐步累积后，才会显著促进衰弱的发生[29]。因此，听力障碍对衰弱的影响表现为效应峰值的滞后出现。而视力障碍通过两个条目（“看远处物体情况怎么样？”“看近处物体情况怎么样？”）进行评估，对轻度功能下降更为敏感，使得视力轻微受损的个体即可被识别并纳入暴露组，从而使其进入效应累积过程的时间更早，导致表现为效应峰值出现时间相对更晚。
3.8　局限性
尽管本研究取得了一定成果，但仍存在一些局限性。首先，由于纳入客观体格测量指标及数据库限制，分析数据仅来自CHARLS数据库2011—2015年调查周期，因此无法揭示更长时间的滞后效应。其次，本研究仅考察单一风险因素与衰弱之间的关联性，未分析其潜在交互作用。最后，部分受试者信息为自我报告，这可能导致信息偏倚。
4　小结
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本研究使用分布式滞后非线性模型系统性分析了衰弱影响因素的非线性暴露-滞后效应及其达峰滞后期，发现轻度运动、剧烈运动、日常活动能力、抑郁、自评健康状况、上肢疼痛、下肢疼痛、躯干疼痛效应峰值出现较早；听力效应峰值出现相对滞后，视力效应出现延迟影响趋势，但效应无统计学意义。本研究提示不同因素在衰弱发生中的作用存在时间差异，应开展分层健康管理与综合干预：1）对于早期因素，应重点加强早期识别与及时干预，优先关注身体活动不足、抑郁状态、自评健康较差及疼痛的人群，通过运动指导、心理支持、健康管理及必要时使用药物等措施延缓衰弱发生进程；2）对于听力、视力等视听功能障碍因素，尽管其对衰弱发生具有明显的滞后效应，但仍应重视早期筛查与干预，通过健康教育、助听器使用及屈光矫正等方式改善感官功能，并结合社会支持与心理干预，以减少长期功能受损对衰弱发生的持续促进作用。

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2026年第40卷第17期
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doi: 10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.17.002
  • 接收时间：2026-05-15
  • 首发时间：2026-10-30
  • 出版时间：2026-09-10
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  • 收稿日期：2026-05-15
  • 修回日期：2026-07-13
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    1山东第二医科大学护理学院，山东 261053
    2潍坊市潍城区望留中心卫生院

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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