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Interpretable prediction model of ground response spectra guided by site classifications
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Zhaocheng ZHONG1, 2, Rui SUN1, 2, Tong ZHENG1, 2, Zhuoshi CHEN1, 2, Wenhao QI1, 2, Yu WANG1, 2, Xiao LONG1, 2
Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics | 2025, 45(3) : 127 - 139
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Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics | 2025, 45(3): 127-139
Interpretable prediction model of ground response spectra guided by site classifications
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Zhaocheng ZHONG1, 2, Rui SUN1, 2, Tong ZHENG1, 2, Zhuoshi CHEN1, 2, Wenhao QI1, 2, Yu WANG1, 2, Xiao LONG1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China
  • 2.Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, Ministry of Emergency Management, Harbin 150080, China
Published: 2025-06-30 doi: 10.13197/j.eeed.2025.0311
Outline
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The response spectrum is a crucial foundation for seismic design. The constitutive models of traditional numerical simulation methods fail to adequately capture the complex site conditions and dynamic processes of soil with high uncertainty, which causes significant discrepancies between calculated and measured response spectra. This paper used 2428 sets of bedrock and surface seismic records from horizontal site stations by KiK-net in Japan. It established a BO-XGBoost-SS model for predicting ground acceleration response spectra, taking soil layer information and bedrock input as primary features through a stratified sampling training strategy guided by site categories. Results demonstrate that the constructed model exhibits good predictive performance, with an R2 evaluation metric of 0.87 for surface acceleration response spectrum, with R2 values above 0.8 for various periods. Applying dynamic time warping (DTW) distance analysis to assess the prediction match of individual response spectrum, the model proposed shows stability across different site categories, overcoming the deficiencies of numerical methods in underestimating high-frequency ground motion and anomalously amplifying long-period response spectrum. Validation with the latest ground motion records as an external dataset further confirms the model’s generalization ability. Through shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis, the contributions of features to model predictions are elucidated, revealing key features influencing response spectrum predictions, consistent with existing knowledge. The study’s findings provide training strategies and assessment guidance for the development of site response prediction models, offering new insights into the application of machine learning in seismic zoning and earthquake-resistant design of engineering structures.

ground acceleration response spectrum  /  site category  /  machine learning  /  dynamic time warping (DTW)  /  explainability
Zhaocheng ZHONG, Rui SUN, Tong ZHENG, Zhuoshi CHEN, Wenhao QI, Yu WANG, Xiao LONG. Interpretable prediction model of ground response spectra guided by site classifications[J]. Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics, 2025 , 45 (3) : 127 -139 . DOI: 10.13197/j.eeed.2025.0311
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 3
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Article Info
doi: 10.13197/j.eeed.2025.0311
  • Receive Date:2024-08-29
  • Online Date:2026-03-20
  • Published:2025-06-30
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History
  • Received:2024-08-29
  • Revised:2024-09-25
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Affiliations
    1.Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080, China
    2.Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, Ministry of Emergency Management, Harbin 150080, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/dzgcygczd/EN/10.13197/j.eeed.2025.0311
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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