In order to improve the accuracy and stability of short-term wind direction prediction,a wind direction prediction method based on lidar wind data and an improved nonlinear echo state network (NESN) model was proposed.First of all,wind direction data 100 meters ahead of the wind turbine was obtained by laser wind detection radar. Secondly,the multivariate polynomial function was used to construct the nonlinear relation of the internal state of the reserve pool,the order of the weight matrix and the complexity of model calculation were reduced.Finally,the prediction model was established and the simulation prediction was carried out on different lidar data sets.The results show that compared with the nonlinear echo state network and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS),the mean absolute error (MAE),root mean square error (RMSE),normalized mean absolute error (NMAE)and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE)of the improved NESN model are significantly reduced,and the prediction accuracy and stability are improved.The accuracy of the wind turbine alignment the wind direction is improved and the mechanical loss of yaw is reduced.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |