This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the “production-living-ecological space” and habitat quality, uncover their intrinsic linkages and the underlying mechanisms driving habitat quality changes, and to provide a scientific foundation for optimizing territorial spatial planning and promoting the coordinated development of ecological conservation and economic growth in arid regions.

Taking Xinjiang as the study area, four periods of land use data (1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020), were analyzed integrated with natural factors (elevation, slope, aspect, soil type, annual average precipitation, annual average temperature, and annual average evapotranspiration) and socioeconomic factors (GDP). The spatiotemporal dynamics of the three spaces were examined using a land use transition matrix, land use dynamic degree, gravity center transfer model, and standard deviational ellipse. Habitat quality was assessed using the InVEST model, while the ecological impacts of land use transitions were quantified through an ecological contribution rate analysis. Geoprobe was employed to identify key drivers of habitat quality and their interactive effects.

1) From 1990 to 2020, ecological space dominated the three spaces in Xinjiang (accounting for over 96%), yet it continuously decreased in extent, whereas production space (particularly agricultural land) and living space expanded steadily. Spatially, ecological space was primarily distributed along mountainous regions, while production and living spaces clustered within oases; 2) Overall habitat quality remained low, characterized by a persistent dominance of medium- and low-quality areas and fragile high-quality patches. Low-quality habitats exceeded 60% of the total area; medium-quality habitats showed gradual improvement; high-quality habitats were concentrated in mountain ranges such as the Tianshan and Altai mountains but exhibited a fluctuating decline in area. Habitat degradation evolved from widespread, diffuse expansion toward localized, point-source deterioration; 3) The ecological consequences of three-space transformation varied significantly across phases: from 1990 to 2000, degradation far outweighed improvement; however, from 2010 to 2020, improvement and degradation reached near equilibrium, indicating enhanced synergy between ecological protection and socioeconomic development; 4) Spatial variations in habitat quality were predominantly governed by natural factors, ranked by explanatory power (q-value) as soil type > annual average precipitation > annual average evapotranspiration > annual average temperature. Interactions among natural factors exhibited nonlinear enhancement, whereas socioeconomic factors (GDP) exerted minimal influence.

Over the past three decades, the configuration of the three spaces in Xinjiang has undergone substantial transformation. The contraction of ecological space and concurrent expansion of production and living spaces have critically impacted habitat quality, which remains generally low and primarily regulated by natural conditions-particularly soil properties and hydrothermal regimes. Future strategies should prioritize the optimization of territorial spatial structures and strengthen ecological restoration efforts to ensure both ecological security and sustainable economic development in arid environments.