In order to provide a reference for the maintenance and protection of the natural population of Picea neoveitchii, this study discussed the structure and development trend of Picea neoveitchii in the field, revealing the current situation and development trend.

This study investigated the population of Picea neoveitchii in two existing areas, Zhouqu and Tianshui, Gansu. Utilizing population ecology methods, statistical analyses are performed on aspects such as the age-class structure, population dynamics, and viability of the populations. Additionally, a time series model was employed to predict the characteristics of the population quantity structure.

The results showed that: 1) The population in Zhouqu had a relatively abundant number of seedlings and saplings, with an age structure approximating a bell shape, indicating a stable population. The population in Tianshui was in a remnant state, with fewer than 10 individuals and scarce seedlings, suggesting insufficient potential for regeneration and classifying it as a declining population. Both populations were highly sensitive to external disturbances and had weak anti-disturbance capabilities; 2) The survival curve of the Picea neoveitchii population followed Deevey-Ⅱ, with equal mortality rates at all age groups. The population was in a relatively stable state, and the survival curve showed two peaks of extinction occurring in the Ⅱ and Ⅵ age groups; 3) The survival analysis function indicated that the survival rate (S_t) decreased with increasing age, while the cumulative mortality rate (F_t) increased with increasing age. After diameter class IV, the survival rate of the Picea neoveitchii population balances with its cumulative mortality rate, and the changes in the mortality density curve (f_ti) and hazard rate curve (λ_ti) were basically consistent, showing an overall upward trend, the upward trend slowed down in age groups II to IV, and the increase was more significant after age group IV; 4) The analysis based on the time series prediction model revealed that after undergoing periods of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 diameter classes in the future, the number of individuals across all diameter classes of the Picea neoveitchii population was projected to show an overall upward trend. Moreover, the longer the time span within the same diameter class, the more significant the increase in the number of individuals becomes. The population was a growth population, but normal updates were difficult to maintain in the long term without considering external factors.

This study suggested that the population stability of Picea neoveitchii was poor, it was highly sensitive to the environment, and its ability to resist external interference was weak. It is recommended that the species be included in conservation programs for extremely small populations, with protected areas established. Increased investment in scientific research is needed to enable long-term, systematic monitoring and evaluation of population dynamics. Explore the research and development of artificially modified and intervention-applicable technologies to construct suitable habitats that align with the characteristics of Picea neoveitchii; establish in-situ conservation demonstration zones and conduct research and demonstration of key techniques for wild reintroduction.