收藏切换
Can Digital Technology Improve the Resilience of Grain Production: Causal Inference Based on Dual Machine Learning
收藏切换
Jiabin XU1, Yaru QIN1, Haoyang WEN1, Huanguang QIU2, Zhaoda CUI3
Smart Agriculture | 2026, 8(3) : 176 - 189
Less
收藏切换
Smart Agriculture | 2026, 8(3): 176-189
• Special Issue--Digital Technologies Reshaping Agriculture and Agricultural Economics •
Can Digital Technology Improve the Resilience of Grain Production: Causal Inference Based on Dual Machine Learning
Full
Jiabin XU1, Yaru QIN1, Haoyang WEN1, Huanguang QIU2, Zhaoda CUI3
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
  • 2.School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China
  • 3.College of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
  • XU Jiabin, E-mail:

About Author:

XU Jiabin, E-mail:

Published: 2026-05-30 doi: 10.12133/j.smartag.SA202601011
Outline
收藏切换

[Objective] Leveraging digital technology to enhance grain production resilience is pivotal for ensuring food security and constructing a modernized agricultural support system. The purposes of this study are to: (1) Define the connotation of grain production resilience and construct an evaluation index system across three dimensions: risk resistance, regulatory adaptability, and transformative innovation; (2) Identify the impact and mechanisms of digital technology as a new production factor on grain production resilience; (3) Reveal how digital technology influences resilience through the reorganization of "People-Land-Service" factors; (4) Analyze the heterogeneity of these effects across diverse geographical environments and economic endowments. [Methods] Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2011 to 2023, a rigorous empirical analysis was conducted. First, the entropy method was employed to measure the levels of digital technology and grain production resilience. Second, a dual machine learning model, utilizing support vector machine as base learners with 5-fold cross-validation and double residualization, was constructed for causal inference to address the "curse of dimensionality" and specification biases inherent in traditional linear models. To ensure robustness, an instrumental variable approach was applied, using the product of the number of fixed-line telephones in 1984 and the national internet users of the previous year. Third, a mediation effect model was introduced to test three pathways: non-farm labor transfer, large-scale land management, and agricultural productive services. [Results and Discussions] Mechanism analysis indicated: (1) In the "People" dimension, digital technology promoted non-farm labor transfer by reducing information search costs, thereby inducing capital reflux to alleviate financial constraints; (2) In the "Land" dimension, digital platforms lowered transaction costs for land transfer, facilitating contiguous large-scale farming and improving the marginal efficiency of digital equipment; (3) In the "Service" dimension, digital technology empowered agricultural service organizations, enhancing resilience through technology diffusion and professional intervention. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the empowerment effect was more pronounced in grain production-marketing balanced zones, high-relief terrains, and economically underdeveloped regions. This highlighted the "gap-filling" nature of digital technology, where precision tools like drones and remote sensing compensated for the limitations of traditional machinery in complex terrains. Notably, while digital technology significantly drove overall resilience, it primarily bolstered regulatory adaptability and transformative innovation while exerting a significant negative impact on initial risk resistance. [Conclusions] Digital technology is not a mere superposition of factors; rather, it catalyzes a fundamental transformation in the dynamics of grain production through the systemic restructuring of elements. To this end, differentiated strategies should be implemented: Major grain-producing areas should prioritize full-chain data integration, whereas production-marketing balanced zones and ecologically disadvantaged regions should focus on overcoming digital infrastructure bottlenecks. Furthermore, a horizontal "digital feedback" compensation mechanism should be innovated, encouraging major consumption areas to shift from "blood transfusion" (passive aid) to "blood-making" (capacity building) through technology licensing and targeted talent support. Finally, a new system of digitalized agricultural social services should be cultivated, leveraging the scale effects of digital platforms to effectively bridge the gap between smallholder farmers and modern agriculture.

grain production resilience  /  digital technology  /  restructuring of elements  /  dual machine learning  /  support vector machine
许佳彬, 秦亚茹, 温浩洋, 仇焕广, 崔钊达. 数字技术能提升粮食生产韧性吗?——基于双重机器学习的因果推断. 智慧农业(中英文), 2026 , 8 (3) : 176 -189 . DOI: 10.12133/j.smartag.SA202601011
Jiabin XU, Yaru QIN, Haoyang WEN, Huanguang QIU, Zhaoda CUI. Can Digital Technology Improve the Resilience of Grain Production: Causal Inference Based on Dual Machine Learning[J]. Smart Agriculture, 2026 , 8 (3) : 176 -189 . DOI: 10.12133/j.smartag.SA202601011
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China(72503031)
  • General Project of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2025M772469)
  • Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(LH2024G001)
  • Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Science Fund Project(25JYC030)
  • Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation Youth Project(ZR2025QC734)
Year 2026 volume 8 Issue 3
199
93
Cite this Article
BibTeX
Article Info
doi: 10.12133/j.smartag.SA202601011
  • Receive Date:2026-01-08
  • Online Date:2026-10-16
  • Published:2026-05-30
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2026-01-08
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China(72503031)
General Project of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2025M772469)
Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(LH2024G001)
Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Science Fund Project(25JYC030)
Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation Youth Project(ZR2025QC734)
Affiliations
    1.College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
    2.School of Economics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China
    3.College of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China

Corresponding:

CUI Zhaoda, E-mail:
References
Share
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zhny/EN/10.12133/j.smartag.SA202601011
Share to
QR

Scan QR to access full text

Cite this article
BibTeX
Citations
表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏
  • BibTeX
  • EndNote
  • RefWorks
  • TxT