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Research on the development stage of Chinese ports based on multivariate change point analysis
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Qiang ZHANG1, Bowen ZHENG1, Yijun QIU1, Shenjian WANG2
Navigation of China | 2025, 48(1) : 101 - 107
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Navigation of China | 2025, 48(1): 101-107
• Port and Waterway Engineering •
Research on the development stage of Chinese ports based on multivariate change point analysis
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Qiang ZHANG1, Bowen ZHENG1, Yijun QIU1, Shenjian WANG2
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
  • 2.Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping Co., Ltd. Shanghai 200021, China
Published: 2025-03-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.01.013
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To clarify the development stages and characteristics of China's major coastal ports since its accession to the WTO, a quantitative study is conducted based on the monthly container throughput data of seven major coastal ports from 2002 to 2023. Multivariate change point analysis is introduced to objectively reflect the stage characteristics of port development, and the Chow test is used to verify the reliability of the quantitative research results. The study shows that the major coastal ports in China can be divided into six development stages over the 22-year research period. By combining the characteristics of port container throughput growth in different stages and considering key events such as China's accession to the WTO at the end of 2001, the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, and the spread of COVID-19 in 2020, the six stages are identified as: rapid growth period (2002~2005), fluctuating development period (2006~2010), recovery growth period (2011~2013), stable platform period (2014~2017), development differentiation period (2018~2020), and resilient growth period (2021~2023). Each development stage exhibits distinct characteristics, closely related to the economic and trade conditions of China and the world during the respective periods.

Chinese port  /  container throughput  /  development stages  /  multivariate change point analysis
Qiang ZHANG, Bowen ZHENG, Yijun QIU, Shenjian WANG. Research on the development stage of Chinese ports based on multivariate change point analysis[J]. Navigation of China, 2025 , 48 (1) : 101 -107 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.01.013
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Article Info
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.01.013
  • Receive Date：2023-11-17
  • Online Date：2026-03-17
  • Published：2025-03-25
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  • Received：2023-11-17
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Affiliations
    1.College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China
    2.Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping Co., Ltd. Shanghai 200021, China
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Number of
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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