"The road to water" is one of the emission reduction pathways for inland transportation. The low carbon emission reduction of the inland waterway shipping industry has received widespread attention. The carbon emission intensity index is the core issue in the process of greening the inland waterway shipping industry. Developing a prediction model for the carbon emission intensity of inland vessels is the basis for formulating new energy policies for inland shipping. This paper discusses the green transformation of the inland waterway shipping industry, drawing on cutting-edge domestic and international research. First, it analyses the factors influencing inland waterway shipping carbon emissions and their interrelationships. Based on this analysis, a system dynamics model was used to construct a prediction method for carbon emission intensity. This method was then used to analyse the changing trend of carbon emission intensity for container vessels, using the Yangtze River as a case study under various scenarios. The results show that: i. The system dynamics model for predicting carbon emission intensity in inland river operations is valid and reflects the real system more accurately. ii. Under the vessel energy efficiency improvement scenario, the carbon emission intensity decreases to 94.04% and 64.40% in 2030 and 2060 respectively, compared with the baseline scenario. iii. The carbon emission intensity in 2030 and 2060 decreases to 87.47% and 29.35% of the baseline scenario for the same year respectively when multiple measures are implemented to improve ship energy efficiency, optimise energy structure, accelerate the elimination of vessels, and levy a carbon tax.