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Safety risk assessment of oil tanker loading and unloading operation based on Bayesian network
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Lijiao KUANG1, Huimin SHI1, Yuanlai QIAN2, Chaodong GU2, Baofeng PAN1
Navigation of China | 2025, 48(3) : 90 - 97
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Navigation of China | 2025, 48(3): 90-97
• Ship and Ocean Engineering Equipment •
Safety risk assessment of oil tanker loading and unloading operation based on Bayesian network
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Lijiao KUANG1, Huimin SHI1, Yuanlai QIAN2, Chaodong GU2, Baofeng PAN1
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Shipping and Marine Engineering, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
  • 2.Zhong'an Weixin Technology Co., Ltd, Zhoushan 316000, China
Published: 2025-09-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.011
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To address the high safety risks and frequent accidents associated with oil tanker loading and unloading operations, this paper proposes a data-driven risk assessment method based on Bayesian networks. Guided by systems engineering theory, a three-layer Bayesian network evaluation model comprising 34 nodes is constructed. Using the inference principle of the expectation-maximization algorithm, the conditional probabilities of the network nodes are computed to quantify risk levels within the model. The rationality and reliability of the model are verified through sensitivity and effectiveness analyses. Validation using data from 20 actual tankers demonstrates that the model's output aligns with risk levels assessed by port security personnel and can accurately evaluate the risks during oil tanker loading and unloading operations. The proposed model and method are applicable for assessing safety risk levels in oil tanker operations and can serve as a reference for safety evaluations of loading and unloading operations for other types of dangerous goods carriers.

oil tanker loading and unloading operation  /  safety risk assessment  /  Bayesian network  /  sensitivity analysis  /  effectiveness analysis
Lijiao KUANG, Huimin SHI, Yuanlai QIAN, Chaodong GU, Baofeng PAN. Safety risk assessment of oil tanker loading and unloading operation based on Bayesian network[J]. Navigation of China, 2025 , 48 (3) : 90 -97 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.011
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Year 2025 volume 48 Issue 3
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Article Info
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.011
  • Receive Date：2023-11-23
  • Online Date：2026-03-17
  • Published：2025-09-25
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  • Received：2023-11-23
Affiliations
    1.School of Shipping and Marine Engineering, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
    2.Zhong'an Weixin Technology Co., Ltd, Zhoushan 316000, China
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小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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