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Bayesian estimation of collision damage level of ship structures under limited parameters
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Mingdong LYU1, Zhijiang YUAN1, Shangyue ZHANG1, Xiaogang JIANG1, Zhongchang AN2
Navigation of China | 2025, 48(3) : 49 - 56
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Navigation of China | 2025, 48(3): 49-56
• Marine Traffic Safety •
Bayesian estimation of collision damage level of ship structures under limited parameters
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Mingdong LYU1, Zhijiang YUAN1, Shangyue ZHANG1, Xiaogang JIANG1, Zhongchang AN2
Affiliations
  • 1.Department of Navigation, Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116018, China
  • 2.Naval Research Institute, Beijing 100071, China
Published: 2025-09-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.006
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Ship collisions pose significant risks to ship structures and the safety of lives on board. Rapid analysis of the extent of structural damage from collisions can provide a critical basis for emergency risk mitigation and damage control and rescue operations. While the Finite Element Method (FEM) can accurately calculate the degree of structural collision damage, it is time-consuming and requires numerous parameters, making it unsuitable for rapid damage assessment under limited input conditions. Using a dataset of 202 ship collision accidents that occurred between 2015 and 2019, this study applies statistical analysis to establish relationships between damage factors and damage levels. A Bayesian network model is developed to analyze the risk of collision damage grades under the combined influence of multiple factors. The results demonstrate that the proposed method agrees well with actual accident cases and can rapidly estimate the collision damage level of ship structures even when only limited parameters are available.

ship collision  /  collision damage grades  /  Bayesian estimation
Mingdong LYU, Zhijiang YUAN, Shangyue ZHANG, Xiaogang JIANG, Zhongchang AN. Bayesian estimation of collision damage level of ship structures under limited parameters[J]. Navigation of China, 2025 , 48 (3) : 49 -56 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.006
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Year 2025 volume 48 Issue 3
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.03.006
  • Receive Date：2024-06-29
  • Online Date：2026-03-17
  • Published：2025-09-25
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  • Received：2024-06-29
Affiliations
    1.Department of Navigation, Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116018, China
    2.Naval Research Institute, Beijing 100071, China
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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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