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An emergency decision-making method for Ro-Ro passenger ship collisions based on fuzzy Bayesian network
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Houzhong CHEN1, 2, Zhihou LI1, 2, Diao HAN3, 4, 5, Yanlong XU1, 2
Navigation of China | 2025, 48(4) : 47 - 58
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Navigation of China | 2025, 48(4): 47-58
• Marine Traffic Safety •
An emergency decision-making method for Ro-Ro passenger ship collisions based on fuzzy Bayesian network
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Houzhong CHEN1, 2, Zhihou LI1, 2, Diao HAN3, 4, 5, Yanlong XU1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
  • 2.Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
  • 3.Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
  • 4.School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
  • 5.State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
Published: 2025-12-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.006
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As an important component of the waterway transportation system, Ro-Ro passenger ship transportation plays a significant role in inland river, coastal, and even cross-strait transport services. In recent years, collisions involving Ro-Ro passenger ships have occurred from time to time. To mitigate the losses caused by such accidents, this paper proposes an emergency decision-making model for Ro-Ro passenger ship collisions based on a fuzzy Bayesian network. The identified emergency decision variables for RoPax ship collisions are fuzzified by introducing fuzzy logic. Combined with improved IF-THEN rules, confidence rule bases are established and then converted into a conditional probability table, thereby constructing a complete Bayesian network inference structure. Ultimately, the optimal emergency decision scheme is determined through utility value evaluation. The results demonstrate that the proposed emergency decision-making model is effective and feasible, aligning with practical application requirements. This study provides ship decision-makers with a reference basis for emergency response in the event of a RoPax ship collision.

Ro-Ro passenger ship collision  /  emergency decision-making  /  fuzzy logic  /  Bayesian network
Houzhong CHEN, Zhihou LI, Diao HAN, Yanlong XU. An emergency decision-making method for Ro-Ro passenger ship collisions based on fuzzy Bayesian network[J]. Navigation of China, 2025 , 48 (4) : 47 -58 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.006
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.006
  • Receive Date：2024-11-02
  • Online Date：2026-03-17
  • Published：2025-12-25
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  • Received：2024-11-02
Affiliations
    1.School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
    2.Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
    3.Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
    4.School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
    5.State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zghh/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1000-4653.2025.04.006
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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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