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Risk evaluation model of accidents in key marine areas using tree augmented naive Bayesian network
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Jing LYU, Zixin REN**, Hanwen FAN, Zheng CHANG
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(12) : 172 - 179
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(12): 172-179
• Public safety •
Risk evaluation model of accidents in key marine areas using tree augmented naive Bayesian network
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Jing LYU, Zixin REN**, Hanwen FAN, Zheng CHANG
Affiliations
  • College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China
Published: 2025-12-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0529
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In response to the frequent and high-impact accidents in key marine areas, a risk assessment model for accidents in such areas based on TAN network was established. To address the issue of partial sample bias in accident reporting, the boxplot method was employed to eliminate outliers and improve data quality. Considering the complexity and correlation of risk factors, a random forest algorithm was utilized to identify key risk factors and establish a risk evaluation index system for accidents in key marine areas. In addition, the performance of TAN network model was compared with six machine learning models for validation and analysis. The results demonstrate that TAN network achieves the highest accuracy of 93.02%. The findings indicate that ship speed, ship length, and pirate attacks are the primary factors contributing to risk events in key marine areas. Vessels aged between 11 and 20 years should be prioritized for maintenance and inspection. In addition, ships navigating in shallow key marine areas should operate with increased caution.

tree augmented naive Bayesian (TAN) network  /  key marine areas  /  maritime accidents  /  risk assessment  /  random forest
Jing LYU, Zixin REN, Hanwen FAN, Zheng CHANG. Risk evaluation model of accidents in key marine areas using tree augmented naive Bayesian network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (12) : 172 -179 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0529
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Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 12
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0529
  • Receive Date：2025-07-21
  • Online Date：2026-07-09
  • Published：2025-12-28
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  • Received：2025-07-21
  • Revised：2025-10-15
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    College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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