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Study on enterprise-led emergency supply reserve system using Bayesian persuasion theory
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Hongrui CHU1, Bin HUANG2
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(8) : 244 - 252
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(8): 244-252
Emergency technology and management
Study on enterprise-led emergency supply reserve system using Bayesian persuasion theory
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Hongrui CHU1, Bin HUANG2
Affiliations
  • 1School of Management and Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
  • 2School of Economy and Management, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018, China
Published: 2025-08-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.1376
Outline
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In order to effectively address the escalating challenges of natural disasters and enhance the efficiency of the enterprise-led emergency supply reserve system, an economic information disclosure mechanism was proposed to boost enterprise participation. Firstly, an enterprise-led emergency supply reserve model was constructed based on an option contract to clarify the intrinsic driving mechanism of disaster occurrence probability on enterprises' reserve decisions. Then, the Stackelberg sequential game framework was further employed to evaluate the effectiveness of government subsidy policies in increasing supply reserve volumes and improving government-enterprise objectives. Furthermore, Bayesian persuasion theory was introduced to design a government information disclosure mechanism, aimed at guiding enterprises' reserve decisions and improving the overall efficiency of relief supply reserves. Finally, a numerical analysis was conducted with flood disasters as a specific application scenario. The research findings indicate that the volume of enterprise-led emergency supply reserves is positively correlated with disaster occurrence probability, reflecting enterprises' sensitivity to disasters. Although government subsidies can increase reserve quantities and reduce government costs, they have limitations in improving enterprises' profits. The information disclosure mechanism designed based on Bayesian persuasion theory outperforms both the baseline model and the subsidy model in terms of reserve quantities, government costs, and enterprises' profits. Through effective disaster information disclosure, the government can enhance the relief efficiency of the enterprise-led emergency supply reserve system.

enterprise-led reserve system  /  emergency supply  /  Bayesian persuasion  /  option contract  /  disaster occurrence probability  /  information disclosure
Hongrui CHU, Bin HUANG. Study on enterprise-led emergency supply reserve system using Bayesian persuasion theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (8) : 244 -252 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.1376
Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 8
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.1376
  • Receive Date:2025-04-01
  • Online Date:2026-07-09
  • Published:2025-08-28
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  • Received:2025-04-01
  • Revised:2025-06-03
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Affiliations
    1School of Management and Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China
    2School of Economy and Management, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310018, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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