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Research on risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event based on CN-SD
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Shifeng LI, Yu SHANG
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(6) : 200 - 208
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(6): 200-208
Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation
Research on risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event based on CN-SD
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Shifeng LI, Yu SHANG
Affiliations
  • School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Published: 2025-06-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1727
Outline
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The urban lifeline Natech event is a multi-risk and multi-subject coupling system. To qualitatively and quantitatively identify the risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech events, first, the risk conduction mechanism was analyzed. Urban lifeline Natech events have both natural disaster chains and domino effects. Then, the complexity and dynamic characteristics of the risk conduction chain were analyzed, and a CN-SD model for the risk conduction chain of the urban lifeline Natech event was constructed. Finally, using the text data of "Top Ten Natural Disasters in China" and their reports, CN indicators such as risk path, risk aggregation, and risk conduction were quantified, and SD indicators such as risk correlation and urban lifeline vulnerability were quantified to numerically simulate the risk conduction rate and degree of urban lifeline Natech event. The results show that the model can qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event, and can visualize the dynamic curves of the domino effect risk conduction rate and degree of technical accidents in transportation, electricity, communication, water supply under natural disaster chain scenarios.

complex network (CN)  /  system dynamics (SD)  /  urban lifeline  /  Natech event  /  risk conduction chain
Shifeng LI, Yu SHANG. Research on risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event based on CN-SD[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (6) : 200 -208 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1727
Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 6
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1727
  • Receive Date:2025-02-11
  • Online Date:2026-07-08
  • Published:2025-06-28
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  • Received:2025-02-11
  • Revised:2025-04-15
Affiliations
    School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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