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Impact of decision-makers' risk perception on emergency material allocation in flood disasters
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Yi LU1, Yuanwang SHANG2, Yuhang WANG2, Danfeng YUE2
China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(1) : 182 - 190
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China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(1): 182-190
• Public Safety and Emergency Management •
Impact of decision-makers' risk perception on emergency material allocation in flood disasters
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Yi LU1, Yuanwang SHANG2, Yuhang WANG2, Danfeng YUE2
Affiliations
  • 1Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610207, China
  • 2Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610065, China
Published: 2026-01-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536
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To develop reasonable emergency material allocation plans for flood disasters, prospect theory was used to characterize the risk perception levels of decision-makers. The reference points for the risk perception of "disaster relief center-disaster site" two-tier decision-makers were defined. A simulation model was constructed using system dynamics to examine the impact of decision-makers' risk perception on the allocation of emergency supplies for flood disasters. The model's validity was verified with case study of 2023 Zhuozhou flood. The study revealed that satisfaction rate at disaster sites and degree of supply-demand imbalance were influenced by risk perception levels of two-tier decision-makers, with a curve representing these effects. The findings show that the risk perception levels of decision-makers at both disaster sites and relief centers have a marginal increasing effect on the disaster site satisfaction rate and supply-demand imbalance. Additionally, under different levels of material availability, the difference in satisfaction rates at disaster sites becomes smaller as decision-makers' risk perception becomes more pessimistic.

decision-maker  /  risk perception  /  flood disaster  /  emergency material allocation  /  system dynamics (SD)  /  prospect theory
Yi LU, Yuanwang SHANG, Yuhang WANG, Danfeng YUE. Impact of decision-makers' risk perception on emergency material allocation in flood disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (1) : 182 -190 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536
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Year 2026 volume 36 Issue 1
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536
  • Receive Date：2025-08-10
  • Online Date：2026-07-08
  • Published：2026-01-28
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History
  • Received：2025-08-10
  • Revised：2025-11-10
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Affiliations
    1Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610207, China
    2Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610065, China
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