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Prediction of pilot human errors during the carrier landing phase under complex task environments based on an improved CREAM method
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Weicheng LIU1, 2, Youchao SUN**, 1, Heng JIN1, Zichang CHEN1, 2
China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(2) : 44 - 51
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China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(2): 44-51
• Safety Science Theories and Methods •
Prediction of pilot human errors during the carrier landing phase under complex task environments based on an improved CREAM method
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Weicheng LIU1, 2, Youchao SUN**, 1, Heng JIN1, Zichang CHEN1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing Jiangsu 210016, China
  • 2Chinese Aeronautical Radio Electronics Research Institute, Shanghai 202241, China
Published: 2026-02-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.02.0102
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To improve the safety of aircraft landing phase, this study investigates the prediction of pilot human error during the carrier landing phase complex task environments based on CREAM. Based on the pilot operational workflows during the carrier landing phase, this work recalibrates the original Common Performance Condition (CPC) factors in CREAM, and proposes an improved approach for predicting the probability of human error in pilots based on the improved CREAM method, describing the situational environment in which the pilot is located during the carrier landing phase. It introduces an Environmental Impact Index and Effect Impact Index to characterize the influence of various task environments on pilots' cognitive functions. A simulated carrier landing assessment experiment is designed and conducted based on the actual situational environment during the carrier landing phase. By analyzing characteristic indicators such as electroencephalogram (EEG), eye-tracking, electrocardiogram (ECG), and electromyography (EMG) data, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index(NASA-TLX) scale data of the subjects, the load level of the subjects in different environments is assessed, and then the effect impact index of different cognitive functions is calculated to predict the probability of human error. The results demonstrate that the proposed method for predicting probability of human error in pilots can improve the accuracy of prediction results by using objective data assessment, which instead of experts' subjective evaluations. This method can predict the probability of human error in pilots under the influence of 20 different environmental factors.

cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)  /  carrier landing phase  /  pilot  /  complex task environments  /  human error  /  cognitive function
Weicheng LIU, Youchao SUN, Heng JIN, Zichang CHEN. Prediction of pilot human errors during the carrier landing phase under complex task environments based on an improved CREAM method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (2) : 44 -51 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.02.0102
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Year 2026 volume 36 Issue 2
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.02.0102
  • Receive Date：2025-09-21
  • Online Date：2026-07-08
  • Published：2026-02-28
Article Data
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History
  • Received：2025-09-21
  • Revised：2025-12-02
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Affiliations
    1College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing Jiangsu 210016, China
    2Chinese Aeronautical Radio Electronics Research Institute, Shanghai 202241, China
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