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Risk zoo (X): a binary interpretation framework and resilience construction regarding butterfly effect
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Ruipeng Tong, Xiangyang Hu, Yuqing Ma, Le Xin
China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(4) : 9 - 18
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China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(4): 9-18
Safety Science Theories and Methods
Risk zoo (X): a binary interpretation framework and resilience construction regarding butterfly effect
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Ruipeng Tong, Xiangyang Hu, Yuqing Ma, Le Xin
Affiliations
  • School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Published: 2026-04-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.2147
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To prevent the occurrence of the butterfly effect in risk management, and in response to the scientific need to enhance the effectiveness of resilience governance in the face of risk amplification, a binary explanation framework for the butterfly effect was constructed based on the duality of risk. This framework encompassed social and cascading amplification of risk, clarifying the social amplification mechanism and cascading transmission pattern of the butterfly effect. On this basis, human-centered resilience construction mechanism in response to the butterfly effect was further explored. The results show that the duality of risk emphasizes the dialectical unity between the objective reality of risk its social constructiveness. Meanwhile, based on this duality, the uncertainty arising from the butterfly effect can be deconstructed, rooted in the complexity of modern socio-technical systems and the ambiguity resulting from the social construction of risk. On the one hand, modern socio-technical risks are interlinked and interdependent, forming an intricate risk network that exhibits endogenous complexity and provides impetus for risk cascade amplification. On the other hand, constrained by risk knowledge, the public's risk perception and behavior are influenced by social, institutional, and cultural factors, among others, manifesting as social ambiguity that creates conditions for the social amplification of risk. The duality of risk necessitates the establishment of a human-centered resilience governance system, that focus on improving risk monitoring and early warning system, refining risk communication mechanism, and promoting multi-stakeholder participation in governance, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of resilience management against the butterfly effect.

risk zoo  /  butterfly effect  /  duality of risk  /  social amplification  /  cascade effect  /  resilience governance
Ruipeng Tong, Xiangyang Hu, Yuqing Ma, Le Xin. Risk zoo (X): a binary interpretation framework and resilience construction regarding butterfly effect[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (4) : 9 -18 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.2147
Year 2026 volume 36 Issue 4
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.2147
  • Receive Date:2025-11-14
  • Online Date:2026-07-08
  • Published:2026-04-28
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  • Received:2025-11-14
  • Revised:2026-02-02
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    School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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