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Evolutionary analysis of ship collision risk propagation under a complex network
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Weiliang QIAO1, Wanyi DENG2, Xiaoxue MA2, 3, Bing HAN4
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(5) : 101 - 110
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(5): 101-110
Safety engineering technology
Evolutionary analysis of ship collision risk propagation under a complex network
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Weiliang QIAO1, Wanyi DENG2, Xiaoxue MA2, 3, Bing HAN4
Affiliations
  • 1 Marine Engineering College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China
  • 2 School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China
  • 3 Public Administration and Humanities College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China
  • 4 Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200135,China
Published: 2024-05-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.0684
Outline
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The event tree analysis(ETA) was applied to the risk propagation process of the risk event chains involved in ship collisions for the purpose of developing directed weighted complex,which was then analyzed according to the topological structure. The traditional K-shell decomposition algorithm was adaptively improved to propose the calculation approach for the absolute criticality of the nodes in the CN. The SIR model was utilized to simulate the risk propagation process within the CN,based on which the dynamic sensitivity of the nodes within CN was analyzed under different cases of infection rates and recovery rates. It is pointed out that approximately 25% of the risk events are found as relatively non-active,and the top 10 critical risk events have no relation with the direct causes of the collision accidents. The sensitivity and criticality of risk events are not consistent at all times,and some risk events would not lead to serious consequences or accidents even though countermeasures are not taken. The existence of direct causes for the collision accidents should be acknowledged for the control and management of risk involved in the ship collisions,and much attention should be paid to the risk propagation process. As a result,differential strategies should be taken during the risk management and control to prevent the ship collisions.

complex network(CN)  /  ship collision  /  risk propagation  /  K-shell decomposition algorithm  /  susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) simulation
Weiliang QIAO, Wanyi DENG, Xiaoxue MA, Bing HAN. Evolutionary analysis of ship collision risk propagation under a complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal(CSSJ), 2024 , 34 (5) : 101 -110 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.0684
Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 5
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.0684
  • Receive Date:2023-11-15
  • Online Date:2025-07-14
  • Published:2024-05-28
Article Data
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History
  • Received:2023-11-15
  • Revised:2024-02-19
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Affiliations
    1 Marine Engineering College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China
    2 School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China
    3 Public Administration and Humanities College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China
    4 Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200135,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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Genus
种数
Number of
species
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Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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