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Quantitative risk analysis on failure of submarine pipeline leakage based on FDHHFLTS-BN
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Fupeng LIU1, 2, Jiu YANG1, **, Shibo WU1, Lixin XU1
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(1) : 166 - 170
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(1): 166-170
• Safety engineering technology •
Quantitative risk analysis on failure of submarine pipeline leakage based on FDHHFLTS-BN
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Fupeng LIU1, 2, Jiu YANG1, **, Shibo WU1, Lixin XU1
Affiliations
  • 1 State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety，Tianjin University，Tianjin 300072，China
  • 2 Offshore Oil Engineering Co.，Ltd.，Tianjin 300451，China
Published: 2024-01-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.1247
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In order to prevent the leakage failure of submarine pipelines，a FDHHFLTS-BN risk analysis method based on FDHHFLTS and BN was proposed to study the probability and key factors of the leakage failure of submarine pipelines. BN was transformed from the fault tree model，and then experts evaluated the probability of basic events according to FDHHFLTS. The best-worst method (BWM) was used to determine the weights of experts，and SAM was used to aggregate the opinions of experts. Finally，based on the constructed Bayesian network model，the probability of accident occurrence was obtained through forward reasoning. Also，the posterior probability was obtained through backward reasoning，and sensitivity was analyzed. Applying the method for the example analysis，the results show that the probability value of the leakage accident of the analyzed submarine pipeline is P=6.20×10-3. Through sensitivity analysis，construction defect of weld-seam，construction defect of material，and fishing gear interaction can be identified as the key factors for the accident.

free double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (FDHHFLTS)  /  Bayesian network(BN)  /  submarine pipeline leakage  /  risk analysis  /  similarity aggregation method(SAM)
Fupeng LIU, Jiu YANG, Shibo WU, Lixin XU. Quantitative risk analysis on failure of submarine pipeline leakage based on FDHHFLTS-BN[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (1) : 166 -170 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.1247
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Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 1
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.1247
  • Receive Date：2023-06-14
  • Online Date：2025-07-09
  • Published：2024-01-28
Article Data
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History
  • Received：2023-06-14
  • Revised：2023-09-17
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Affiliations
    1 State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety，Tianjin University，Tianjin 300072，China
    2 Offshore Oil Engineering Co.，Ltd.，Tianjin 300451，China
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Citations
表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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