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Fire type discrimination of hazardous chemicals tanker based on multinomial Logistic
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Yong LIU1, 2, Xiao LI1, Shiliang SHI1, Yi LU1, Zhengwu WANG3, Xingyu SHI4
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(1) : 231 - 237
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(1): 231-237
Public safety
Fire type discrimination of hazardous chemicals tanker based on multinomial Logistic
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Yong LIU1, 2, Xiao LI1, Shiliang SHI1, Yi LU1, Zhengwu WANG3, Xingyu SHI4
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Resources Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan Hunan 411201,China
  • 2 Institute of Public Security and Emergency Management,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan Hunan 411201,China
  • 3 School of Traffic & Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science & Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China
  • 4 School of Electrical & Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science & Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China
Published: 2024-01-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.1871
Outline
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In order to effectively prevent and control fire accidents of hazardous chemical tanks during transportation,it is necessary to identify the type of tank fire quickly and correctly. The statistical data of domestic hazardous chemicals tanker fire accidents from 2013 to 2020 was analyzed with Python software. According to the characteristics of fire accidents,a regression model with multiple logistic regression theory was established. The three common fire types of hazardous chemicals tankers,namely,jet fire,pool fire and BLEVE(Boiled Liquid Evaporate Vapor Explosion)fire,were regarded as the categories of explained variables. Through the analysis of accident data,a total of 15 fire factors in five aspects,namely,space and road characteristics,time and meteorological characteristics,personnel factors,vehicle and equipment factors,and hazardous chemicals factors,were determined. A multiple logistic regression equation of fire probability of hazardous chemicals tankers was constructed,and the explicitness and accuracy of the equation were tested. The determined model was proved by examples. The probability of three types of fire in hazardous chemicals tankers was obtained. The accident prevention measures were proposed. The results show that it is the most likely a pool fire for a liquefied natural gas tanker,with a probability of 0.55. The second one is jet fire,and the last one is the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion fire. To reduce the probability of pool fires,measures such as improving the mechanical strength of the container and reducing the collision strength could be adopted to prevent leakage holes of large size in the container. Measures such as slowing down the leakage rate,controlling the leakage range and efficient scientific fire extinguishing are adopted to decrease sequences of tank fire.

multiple Logistic regression  /  hazardous chemicals  /  tanker  /  fire type discrimination  /  highway transportation
Yong LIU, Xiao LI, Shiliang SHI, Yi LU, Zhengwu WANG, Xingyu SHI. Fire type discrimination of hazardous chemicals tanker based on multinomial Logistic[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (1) : 231 -237 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.1871
Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 1
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.01.1871
  • Receive Date:2023-08-26
  • Online Date:2025-07-09
  • Published:2024-01-28
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History
  • Received:2023-08-26
  • Revised:2023-11-13
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Affiliations
    1 School of Resources Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan Hunan 411201,China
    2 Institute of Public Security and Emergency Management,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan Hunan 411201,China
    3 School of Traffic & Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science & Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China
    4 School of Electrical & Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science & Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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