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Refined evaluation model for pilot's individual exceedance risk based on QAR data
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Lei WANG1, Jianing AN1, Xinbin ZHAO2, Liling YU2
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(8) : 35 - 42
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(8): 35-42
Safety social science and safety management
Refined evaluation model for pilot's individual exceedance risk based on QAR data
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Lei WANG1, Jianing AN1, Xinbin ZHAO2, Liling YU2
Affiliations
  • 1 College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China
  • 2 Aviation Safety Institute,China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028,China
Published: 2024-08-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.08.1824
Outline
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In order to achieve a quantitative evaluation of individual pilot's exceedance risk,a refined evaluation model for pilot's individual exceedance risk was established based on QAR data and the flight operations quality assurance(FOQA) monitoring items. Firstly,according to accident statistics,International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the core risks divided by the FOQA station,the FOQA monitoring items associated with the three types of core risks were selected as the evaluation indexes,and the risk value for each core risk of the individual pilots was calculated. In the next step,the weight of each core risk value was calculated by entropy weighted TOPSIS. Then,the refined evaluation model for the pilot's individual exceedance risk was established. Finally,the model was applied to the quantitative evaluation of actual flight risk. By collecting 9 317 pieces of multi-source fusion data from the FOQA station of Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC),the individual exceedance risk of the pilots were quantified,the ranking of individual pilots' exceedance risk was obtained,and the pilot's individual exceedance risk levels were also divided with the use of K-means clustering algorithm. The results show that the model can quantify and rank 1 693 individual pilots' exceedance risk,and divide the pilot's exceedance risk into three types,including high risk,medium risk and low risk.

quick access recorder (QAR) data  /  individual exceedance risk  /  refined evaluation  /  flight operations quality assurance (FOQA)  /  entropy-weighted technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)  /  K-means clustering
Lei WANG, Jianing AN, Xinbin ZHAO, Liling YU. Refined evaluation model for pilot's individual exceedance risk based on QAR data[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (8) : 35 -42 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.08.1824
Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 8
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.08.1824
  • Receive Date:2024-02-19
  • Online Date:2025-07-09
  • Published:2024-08-28
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  • Received:2024-02-19
  • Revised:2024-05-12
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Affiliations
    1 College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China
    2 Aviation Safety Institute,China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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