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Risk assessment of chemical industrial park storage tanks struck by lightning based on hybrid causal logic methodology
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Zhen YANG1, 2, Junming LIANG1, Li GUO1, Xiaobin DONG3
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(9) : 174 - 182
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(9): 174-182
• Public safety •
Risk assessment of chemical industrial park storage tanks struck by lightning based on hybrid causal logic methodology
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Zhen YANG1, 2, Junming LIANG1, Li GUO1, Xiaobin DONG3
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Resources Engineering，Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology，Xi'an Shaanxi 710055，China
  • 2 Xi'an Key Laboratory of Perceptual Computing and Decision-making in Intelligent Industry，Xi'an Shaanxi 710055，China
  • 3 School of Safety Engineering，China University of Mining and Technology，Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116，China
Published: 2024-09-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0090
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Coastal chemical industrial parks have frequently experienced lightning strikes，which seriously threaten production safety. A risk assessment method based on HCL methodology was proposed to assess Natech (Natural-technological) accidents triggered by lightning strikes on storage tanks in these parks. Firstly，ESD and Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) were employed to qualitatively analyze the evolution paths of Natech accidents caused by lightning strikes on storage tanks，providing a visual foundation for blocking the accident transmission process. Secondly，BN were used to quantitatively calculate human error probabilities and assess the hybrid causal relationships of lightning-induced storage tank accidents. Finally，HCl methodology was applied to visually deconstruct the complexity and uncertainty of Natech accidents caused by lightning strikes on storage tanks. The research results indicate that decision-making error is the primary risk source in the human error model. Organizational atmosphere，psychological state，poor working environment and inadequate supervision are identified as the main factors leading to frequent human errors. The lack of effectiveness of lightning protection facilities is recognized as the trigger in the accident chain of lightning strikes on storage tanks. To reduce the severity of risk scenarios，emphasis needs to be placed on strengthening the control of full-surface fires and pool fires.

hybrid causal logic (HCL)  /  chemical park  /  lightning strike on storage tank  /  risk assessment  /  Bayesian network (BN)  /  event sequence diagram (ESD)
Zhen YANG, Junming LIANG, Li GUO, Xiaobin DONG. Risk assessment of chemical industrial park storage tanks struck by lightning based on hybrid causal logic methodology[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (9) : 174 -182 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0090
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0090
  • Receive Date：2024-03-22
  • Online Date：2025-07-09
  • Published：2024-09-28
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  • Received：2024-03-22
  • Revised：2024-06-25
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Affiliations
    1 School of Resources Engineering，Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology，Xi'an Shaanxi 710055，China
    2 Xi'an Key Laboratory of Perceptual Computing and Decision-making in Intelligent Industry，Xi'an Shaanxi 710055，China
    3 School of Safety Engineering，China University of Mining and Technology，Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116，China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgaqkxxb/EN/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0090
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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