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Research on'status and trends' scenario construction and combination deduction method of stampede accident in large-scale activities
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Yi LIU1, Maoyuan LI1, Xinzhi WANG2, Hui ZHANG3
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(9) : 183 - 190
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(9): 183-190
• Public safety •
Research on'status and trends' scenario construction and combination deduction method of stampede accident in large-scale activities
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Yi LIU1, Maoyuan LI1, Xinzhi WANG2, Hui ZHANG3
Affiliations
  • 1 Capital Social Security Research Base，People's Public Security University of China，Beijing 100038，China
  • 2 School of Computer Engineering and Science，Shanghai University，Shanghai 200444，China
  • 3 Institute of Public Safty Research，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100083，China
Published: 2024-09-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0575
Outline
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In order to address the challenges associated with characterizing the scenarios of stampede accidents and facilitating comprehension of these scenarios among decision-makers，a method for constructing and combining scenarios of large-scale event stampede accidents was proposed. Firstly，the scene elements of stampede accidents were extracted in large-scale events from the four factors that affect the formation of large-scale activities: people，venue，management，and environment，and a formal expression method for "state" and "trends" of large-scale activities research was established. Secondly，based on Markov model，a deduction description and calculation method for the transformation of situational "state-trends" was provided. Finally，an example analysis was conducted using Shanghai Bund accident. The findings of empirical analyses indicate that deductive results are largely aligned with the actual development process of the 2014 Shanghai stampede. This evidence substantiates the scientific rigour and efficacy of methodology proposed in the paper.

large-scale activities  /  stampede accident  /  'status and trends'  /  scenario construction  /  combination deduction
Yi LIU, Maoyuan LI, Xinzhi WANG, Hui ZHANG. Research on'status and trends' scenario construction and combination deduction method of stampede accident in large-scale activities[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (9) : 183 -190 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0575
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Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 9
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0575
  • Receive Date：2024-02-20
  • Online Date：2025-07-09
  • Published：2024-09-28
Article Data
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History
  • Received：2024-02-20
  • Revised：2024-05-22
Funding
Affiliations
    1 Capital Social Security Research Base，People's Public Security University of China，Beijing 100038，China
    2 School of Computer Engineering and Science，Shanghai University，Shanghai 200444，China
    3 Institute of Public Safty Research，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100083，China
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