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GWO-BP-based forecasting of emergency material demand in post-earthquake transitional resettlement phase
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Wei ZHAN1, Chunxin CHENG2, **
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(10) : 17 - 23
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(10): 17-23
Safety social science and safety management
GWO-BP-based forecasting of emergency material demand in post-earthquake transitional resettlement phase
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Wei ZHAN1, Chunxin CHENG2, **
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
  • 2 School of Engineering Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
Published: 2024-10-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.10.0131
Outline
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In order to accurately predict the material demand in the transitional resettlement stage of earthquakes and improve the efficiency and accuracy of emergency material mobilization,the factors that have a great impact on the number of resettled population were determined based on the historical seismic data in China. A prediction model of the resettled population based on GWO-BP was established,which combined with the quantitative relationship between the population and emergency supplies,to predict the material demand in the transitional resettlement stage after the earthquake. The experimental results show that the GWO-BP neural network model exhibits high accuracy and stability in predicting the number of relocated populations,and can effectively predict the number of relocated populations in disaster areas,thereby calculating the corresponding material demand. GWO-BP neural network model has a certain application value in predicting material demand in post-earthquake transitional resettlement stage,and can provide a reference for the decision-making of emergency material procurement after the earthquake.

gray wolf optimization algorithm(GWO)  /  back propagation(BP) neural network  /  earthquake  /  transitional resettlement phase  /  emergency material  /  demand forecasting
Wei ZHAN, Chunxin CHENG. GWO-BP-based forecasting of emergency material demand in post-earthquake transitional resettlement phase[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (10) : 17 -23 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.10.0131
Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 10
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.10.0131
  • Receive Date:2024-04-22
  • Online Date:2025-07-09
  • Published:2024-10-28
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  • Received:2024-04-22
  • Revised:2024-07-24
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    1 School of Emergency Management Science and Engineering,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
    2 School of Engineering Science,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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