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Research on 4D flight trajectory prediction based on improved Transformer model
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Hong LIU1, Xindi ZHANG1, Fei LU1, Chengyu ZHANG2
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(12) : 74 - 83
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(12): 74-83
Safety engineering technology
Research on 4D flight trajectory prediction based on improved Transformer model
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Hong LIU1, Xindi ZHANG1, Fei LU1, Chengyu ZHANG2
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China
  • 2 North Automatic Control Technology Institute,Taiyuan Shanxi 030006,China
Published: 2024-12-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0497
Outline
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Flight trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in ensuring safe and efficient air traffic operation. In order to consider the implicit correlations between flight trajectory characteristics,the encoding and decoding operations of the prediction framework in the transformer model were enhanced. Firstly,the convolutional block was improved,and ordinary convolutions were applied to capture the correlations between neighboring time series trajectory characteristics,and dilated convolutions were added to capture correlations between non-neighboring time series trajectory characteristics. Secondly,multi-head self-attention was employed to perform calculation based on the spatiotemporal features of the flight trajectory combined with the importance of attention scores. Thirdly,probabilistic sparse method was designed to reduce the computational complexity of the multi-head self-attention and improve the model's computational efficiency. Finally,an experimental platform was established to verify the flight trajectory prediction framework. The results show that compared to the traditional transformer model and the other three neural network models,the improved transformer model shows a 14.4% improvement in time performance. By using root mean square error(RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) as evaluation metrics,the average prediction deviations of the improved transformer model for trajectory features such as longitude,latitude,and altitude are 0.027 and 0.021,respectively. These deviations are reduced by 0.072 and 0.063 compared to the traditional transformer model's average prediction deviations of 0.099 and 0.084. Sensitivity analysis on the lengths of prediction sequences indicates that the improved transformer model is more stable than the baseline models.

improved Transformer model  /  4D flight trajectory  /  trajectory prediction  /  deep learning  /  dilated convolution  /  attention mechanism
Hong LIU, Xindi ZHANG, Fei LU, Chengyu ZHANG. Research on 4D flight trajectory prediction based on improved Transformer model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (12) : 74 -83 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0497
Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 12
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0497
  • Receive Date:2024-09-11
  • Online Date:2025-07-09
  • Published:2024-12-28
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  • Received:2024-09-11
  • Revised:2024-11-08
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Affiliations
    1 School of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China
    2 North Automatic Control Technology Institute,Taiyuan Shanxi 030006,China
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