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Resilient prediction and dynamic spatial differentiation of core Chinese mainland cities
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Hui XU1, Zehong YE1, Qilin ZHOU2, Rifen ZHANG3
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(3) : 179 - 186
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(3): 179-186
• Public safety •
Resilient prediction and dynamic spatial differentiation of core Chinese mainland cities
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Hui XU1, Zehong YE1, Qilin ZHOU2, Rifen ZHANG3
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Economics and Management，Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications，Chongqing 400065，China
  • 2 Chongqing Major Projects Service Center，Chongqing 401121，China
  • 3 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture，Liuzhou Institute of Technology，Liuzhou Guangxi 545616，China
Published: 2025-03-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.03.0075
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In order to improve urban governance and promote sustainable development，the resilience measurement of core cities in Chinese mainland was analyzed based on panel data from 25 core cities (municipalities directly under the central government，provincial capitals，and regional capitals) between 2011 and 2020. Technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)-Entropy Weight Method was applied. The resilience situation for 2026 and 2029 was predicted using a BP neural network model. This research aimed to explore the dynamic spatial differentiation of regional resilience. The results show that the standard deviation of the resilience index across cities fluctuates around 0.180，with the resilience disparity between cities remaining relatively stable. However，some cities show a downward trend in their resilience index year by year. The standard deviation of the predicted resilience index for 2026 decreases to 0.173，indicating a reduction in the resilience disparity between cities and a narrowing of the resilience gap. In the four time points of 2014，2020，2026，and 2029，the spatial heterogeneity of urban resilience evolves relatively stably. The urban resilience rankings are as follows: Eastern region > Central region > Western region > Northeastern region. Among them，the economic and infrastructure resilience in the Eastern region is the highest，while the social and ecological resilience in the Central region is the highest.

core cities  /  prediction of urban resilience  /  spatial heterogeneous pattern  /  back propagation(BP)neural network  /  natural intermittent point method
Hui XU, Zehong YE, Qilin ZHOU, Rifen ZHANG. Resilient prediction and dynamic spatial differentiation of core Chinese mainland cities[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (3) : 179 -186 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.03.0075
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.03.0075
  • Receive Date：2024-10-14
  • Online Date：2025-07-05
  • Published：2025-03-28
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  • Received：2024-10-14
  • Revised：2024-12-17
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Affiliations
    1 School of Economics and Management，Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications，Chongqing 400065，China
    2 Chongqing Major Projects Service Center，Chongqing 401121，China
    3 School of Civil Engineering and Architecture，Liuzhou Institute of Technology，Liuzhou Guangxi 545616，China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgaqkxxb/EN/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.03.0075
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