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A thermal safety warning system was established based on a thermoregulation model to mitigate the thermal safety risk for elderly people under high-temperature conditions. Firstly, the improved model suitable for the elderly was established by replacing the physical model and adjusting the active and passive systems in the classical model. The improved model was validated using publicly available experimental data. Secondly, the model simulated the temperature changes in elderly people in high-temperature environments. Statistical analysis was used to assess the impact of various parameters on thermal safety. Finally, based on the analysis results and the improved model, a thermal safety risk warning system for elderly people was developed. The warning system was demonstrated through a case study. Results indicate that the improved model accurately simulates the body temperature of elderly people, with a root mean squared error less than 0.12 ℃. Physical activity intensity significantly impacts thermal safety, with a standardized regression coefficient β larger than 0.8. As heat exposure time increases, the impact of activity intensity on thermal safety is decreased (β decreases from 0.945 to 0.806), while the influence of environmental factors is increased (β of temperature and humidity increases from 0.249 and 0.137 to 0.370 and 0.348). In the case study, the safe duration of continuous activities for the resting and working elderly people in Baoding/Hong Kong is 172/175 minutes and 108/122 minutes, respectively. The highest thermal safety risk period for elderly people on that day is between 17:00 and 18:00.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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