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Risk assessment for overdue in-service pressure pipelines based on BOA-SAM-FTA
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Huabin Tang1, Lei Xu1, Siyu Chen**, 2, Songhua Ma3
China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(4) : 57 - 64
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China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(4): 57-64
• Safety Science Theories and Methods •
Risk assessment for overdue in-service pressure pipelines based on BOA-SAM-FTA
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Huabin Tang1, Lei Xu1, Siyu Chen**, 2, Songhua Ma3
Affiliations
  • 1School of Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing at Karamay, Karamay Xinjiang 834000, China
  • 2China Merchants Xinjiang Special Equipment Inspection & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Urumqi Xinjiang 830011, China
  • 3Oil Production Technology Research Institute, Petro China Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Karamay Xinjiang 834000, China
Published: 2026-04-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0454
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To investigate the failure issues of overdue in-service pressure pipelines, this paper proposed a method based on integration of BOA and SAM for analyzing the failure probability of such pipelines, building upon the FTA framework. First, the causes of failure in overdue in-service pressure pipelines were analyzed, and a fault tree for failure was established. Then, experts were invited to evaluate the basic events of fault tree, and their opinions were aggregated using SAM method and an improved BOA-SAM approach. The accuracy of aggregation was assessed by comparing the uncertainty values of two methods (the lower the uncertainty value, the more precise the aggregation result). Finally, the failure probability of the top event was calculated, and an importance analysis was conducted. The results show that the uncertainty values of the aggregation results obtained using the improved BOA-SAM are significantly lower than those of SAM method. Notably, for the basic event X6, the uncertainty value decreased by 7.6%. The failure probability of the top event is calculated to be 0.117 641. Stress corrosion cracking, third-party damage, weld cracking and excessive H2S content in the medium are identified as the key factors contributing to the occurrence of accidents. This study provides a scientific and logical approach for risk assessment and failure analysis of overdue in-service pressure pipelines.

butterfly optimization algorithm (BOA)  /  similarity aggregation method (SAM)  /  fault tree analysis (FTA)  /  overdue in-service pressure pipelines  /  risk assessment  /  failure probability
Huabin Tang, Lei Xu, Siyu Chen, Songhua Ma. Risk assessment for overdue in-service pressure pipelines based on BOA-SAM-FTA[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (4) : 57 -64 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0454
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Year 2026 volume 36 Issue 4
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0454
  • Receive Date：2025-11-10
  • Online Date：2026-07-08
  • Published：2026-04-28
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History
  • Received：2025-11-10
  • Revised：2026-01-10
Funding
Affiliations
    1School of Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing at Karamay, Karamay Xinjiang 834000, China
    2China Merchants Xinjiang Special Equipment Inspection & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Urumqi Xinjiang 830011, China
    3Oil Production Technology Research Institute, Petro China Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Karamay Xinjiang 834000, China
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