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Construction and analysis of a unitary scenario for cascading evolution of emergencies
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Yinghua Song1, 2, Hongqian Xu**, 1, 2, Xiaoyan Sang1, 2
China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(4) : 184 - 193
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China Safety Science Journal | 2026, 36(4): 184-193
• Public Safety and Emergency Management •
Construction and analysis of a unitary scenario for cascading evolution of emergencies
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Yinghua Song1, 2, Hongqian Xu**, 1, 2, Xiaoyan Sang1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
  • 2China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
Published: 2026-04-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0033
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To address problems such as fixed granularity in emergency scenario modelling and unclear descriptions of multi-scenario attributes and structures, a top-down unitary-scenario construction method was proposed from a microscopic perspective based on baseline thinking. Evolution relationships were established based on two types of knowledge elements, namely state elements and trigger elements. Combined with a hierarchical PN and refined layer by layer, the cascading evolution scenarios of emergencies were systematically characterized, and the evolution dynamics of scenarios were simulated. Taking cascading lifeline disaster events under heavy rainfall as an example, a hierarchical scenario model was constructed.. The characteristics of cascading failure, common cause failure and escalation failure features were characterized, and the evolution trends were analyzed. The interlocking dilemma between urban lifeline failure and emergency response was identified. The results indicate that the proposed scenario construction method can meet different levels of decision-making needs through a hierarchical scenario structure. The isomorphic Markov chain can identify the critical elements affecting the scenario evolution.

emergency  /  unitary scenario  /  Petri net(PN)  /  cascading evolution  /  Markov chain
Yinghua Song, Hongqian Xu, Xiaoyan Sang. Construction and analysis of a unitary scenario for cascading evolution of emergencies[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (4) : 184 -193 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0033
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Year 2026 volume 36 Issue 4
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0033
  • Receive Date：2025-11-21
  • Online Date：2026-07-08
  • Published：2026-04-28
Article Data
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  • Received：2025-11-21
  • Revised：2026-02-28
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Affiliations
    1School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
    2China Research Center for Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430070, China
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