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Time-series prediction model for leakage dispersion of buried high-pressure large-diameter gas pipelines
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Ziqi HAN1, Tong XU**, 1, 2, Jitao CAI1, Siqi ZHANG1, Li ZHANG1
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(12) : 154 - 163
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(12): 154-163
Safety engineering technology
Time-series prediction model for leakage dispersion of buried high-pressure large-diameter gas pipelines
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Ziqi HAN1, Tong XU**, 1, 2, Jitao CAI1, Siqi ZHANG1, Li ZHANG1
Affiliations
  • 1School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Gas and Fire Control for Coal Mines (China University of Mining and Technology), Ministry of Education, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China
Published: 2025-12-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0676
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In order to address the challenges of unclear spatial concentration distribution and uncertain future evolution in high-pressure large-diameter gas pipeline leakage scenarios, a predictive model for gas leakage dispersion was proposed by integrating machine learning-based dimensionality reduction and time series forecasting methods. Firstly, a multi-condition dataset of gas leakage concentration fields was generated using computational fluid dynamics simulations. Subsequently, the dimensionality reduction module and time series forecasting module of the predictive model were separately optimized and trained using this dataset. Finally, the model's predictive accuracy was evaluated on an independent test set, and the prediction errors under various forecast horizons were analyzed. The results show that the model achieves a mean absolute error of 0.000 5 and a mean absolute percentage error (mAPE) of 6.82% on the test set, with the mAPE remaining below 14% across different prediction time steps.

high-pressure large-diameter gas pipeline  /  natural gas  /  leakage and dispersion  /  temporal prediction  /  reduction model
Ziqi HAN, Tong XU, Jitao CAI, Siqi ZHANG, Li ZHANG. Time-series prediction model for leakage dispersion of buried high-pressure large-diameter gas pipelines[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (12) : 154 -163 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0676
Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 12
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0676
  • Receive Date:2025-07-12
  • Online Date:2026-07-09
  • Published:2025-12-28
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  • Received:2025-07-12
  • Revised:2025-10-21
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Affiliations
    1School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
    2Key Laboratory of Gas and Fire Control for Coal Mines (China University of Mining and Technology), Ministry of Education, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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