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Application of LSTM model with multi-algorithm fusion factor screening in dam deformation prediction
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Xiaojun YIN1, Yong DING**, 1, Denghua LI2, 3
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(12) : 129 - 138
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(12): 129-138
Safety engineering technology
Application of LSTM model with multi-algorithm fusion factor screening in dam deformation prediction
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Xiaojun YIN1, Yong DING**, 1, Denghua LI2, 3
Affiliations
  • 1School of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China
  • 2Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
  • 3Key Laboratory of Reservoir Dam Safety, Nanjing 210024, China
Published: 2025-12-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0198
Outline
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To address the reliance on a single factor selection approach in traditional dam deformation prediction and the difficulty of comprehensively capturing complex inter-factor relationships among high-dimensional influencing factors, a factor screening method based on the fusion of multiple algorithms was proposed and applied to construct an LSTM model using optimally factors. Specifically, influencing factors were selected separately using the correlation coefficient method, neighborhood component analysis (NCA), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique. The results from these individual methods were subsequently integrated. Since correlations exist among the factors, highly correlated ones were further eliminated using symmetrical uncertainty (SU), thereby an optimized factors set was obtained. The selected factor set was then used to develop a dam deformation prediction model via an LSTM network. A concrete-faced rockfill dam in Xinjiang was used as the case study. The model performance was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results demonstrate that, compared with traditional factor selection methods, the proposed multi-algorithms are integrated and factors with significant influence on dam deformation are comprehensively and accurately identified. MSE is reduced by 20.11%-59.09%, RMSE by 10.61%-36.05%, and MAE by 9.95%-37.86%, and a superior predictive model was obtained, compared with models using conventional factor selection methods. For specific monitoring points, the maximum reductions in MSE, RMSE, and MAE reach 53.5%, 31.9%, and 34.7%, respectively, while the highest R2 value attains 0.986 0.

multi-algorithm fusion  /  feature selection  /  long short-term memory(LSTM)  /  dam deformation  /  prediction model
Xiaojun YIN, Yong DING, Denghua LI. Application of LSTM model with multi-algorithm fusion factor screening in dam deformation prediction[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (12) : 129 -138 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0198
Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 12
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.12.0198
  • Receive Date:2025-06-20
  • Online Date:2026-07-09
  • Published:2025-12-28
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  • Received:2025-06-20
  • Revised:2025-09-18
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Affiliations
    1School of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China
    2Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
    3Key Laboratory of Reservoir Dam Safety, Nanjing 210024, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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