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Risk assessment of UAV operation considering risk of mid-air collision
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Nan LI1, Boyun YAN1, Linshi SUN2, Peng HAN1, Zhigang ZHENG3, Qingyu JIAO3
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(10) : 91 - 97
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(10): 91-97
Safety engineering technology
Risk assessment of UAV operation considering risk of mid-air collision
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Nan LI1, Boyun YAN1, Linshi SUN2, Peng HAN1, Zhigang ZHENG3, Qingyu JIAO3
Affiliations
  • 1College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
  • 2Operations Management Center, Spring Airlines Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200335, China
  • 3Institute of Civil Aviation Operation Technology, CAAC Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China
Published: 2025-10-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894
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To improve the efficiency of UAV air traffic management, ensure flight safety and promote the safe application of UAVs in complex airspace environments, the risk assessment of UAV operation was focused in this paper. Firstly, for UAVs with autonomous perception and decision-making capabilities in unstructured airspace environments, based on key parameters such as airborne communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities, maneuvering characteristics and system response time. A conflict probability model and a collision probability model considering avoidance maneuvering strategies were constructed to quantitatively evaluate the airspace collision risks. Then, considering that UAV collision accidents do not directly cause casualties, a ground risk assessment model was constructed that comprehensively considers UAV aerial collision events and crashes caused by system failures. Finally, taking 1×10-6 deaths/flight hours as the safety target level, the safety separation that needs to be maintained during airborne flights was determined. The results show that considering both the conflict probability and the probability of the conflict escalating into a collision simultaneously can solve the problem of underestimated risks during the free flight stage. The maximum allowable collision risk varies significantly among different operating scenarios.

unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)  /  operation risk  /  collision risk  /  ground risk  /  safety interval
Nan LI, Boyun YAN, Linshi SUN, Peng HAN, Zhigang ZHENG, Qingyu JIAO. Risk assessment of UAV operation considering risk of mid-air collision[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (10) : 91 -97 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894
Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 10
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894
  • Receive Date:2025-06-01
  • Online Date:2026-07-09
  • Published:2025-10-28
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  • Received:2025-06-01
  • Revised:2025-08-19
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Affiliations
    1College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
    2Operations Management Center, Spring Airlines Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200335, China
    3Institute of Civil Aviation Operation Technology, CAAC Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
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占总种数比例
Percentage of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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